Beyond agri theme: 4 mid & smallcap stocks to play changing rural economic matrix

In the last three years, many sectors and companies which have been in the dumps for years have made a comeback. There are two kinds of comebacks, one is comeback on the dalal street. Second is a comeback in the real business. It is the second one which is more important as that is what finally matters to even the street. If one looks at the history of the liquor industry it has been dominated by two large names, but over the last few years, many smaller companies have made a comeback in a real business sense. Some due to their one brand getting super successful, others have been able to restructure their operation, reduce debt by selling some of the non core assets. Some by becoming bottlers and outsourcing their capacity to large players. In a nutshell, after two decades of ups and downs, these smaller players have reached the point where there is a possibility that they might see a re-rating, if they stay in course of clean and transparent corporate governance.

While the under current of the market is still bullish but as corrections and consolidation are part of every bull market, nifty is moving in and out green, there are clear signs of profit booking taking place in the broader market with market breadth not being as positive as it used to be. While the initial part of any volatility is led by large caps, there is a higher probability that the large caps are able to stabilize much before any part of the market. So, if one is thinking of fresh exposure to the market it would be better to stick with large caps. ET screener powered by Refinitiv’s Stock Report Plus lists down quality stocks with high upside potential over the next 12 months, having an average recommendation rating of “buy” or strong buy . The screener applies different algorithms for all BSE and NSE stocks.

When it comes to the rural economy, most believe that it is auto and FMCG companies which give a good idea how the rural economy is working, But there is another set of companies which might have a better insight on how the rural and even semi urban part of the economy are doing because they work in this part of the country and also because of the fact of lending in those businesses which operate in the area. Despite all the headwinds, these small finance banks have been able to grow.

There are many sectors which have been able to do well because of policy push by the government. Many may not realize that “Tipper” which is a kind of light commercial vehicle ( LCV) did extremely well due to the fact that it is used in road construction and in the last eight years, that has done extremely well. Similarly a tile company did well because there was a housing boom and auto ancillary which was focussed on EV did well due to push to EV. Now with increased probability of continuation of policy push, some of these sectors and companies are likely to see continued tailwinds. ET screener powered by Refinitiv’s Stock Report Plus applies different algorithms & filters to all BSE and NSE stocks, and lists stocks which fulfill the various criteria as specified into the algorithms & filters to find those which might help navigate the stock market.

After a brutal correction, at an index level we can see some respite. But at the broader market levels, there are clear signs that valuations are still a concern. So, it might be too premature to call that the risk of overall high valuations leading to more time wise correction is over. There are questions at this point of time which need to be addressed. First, what does one do with existing investments? Second, which set of stocks one should look at if one is making if one is planning to put in fresh money? The answer to the first question, move out of stocks where fundamentals are in doubt and stocks price have just moved up because of liquidity which was rolling on the street. For the second one, stick to large caps and even in that diversify exposure to different sectors. Don't over expose oneself to one sector as one headwind in a sector can take away gains. Last but not least, stick to companies with certain level of Return on Equity (ROE), Return on Capital Employed (ROCE), and company debt levels should not be overlooked

Once again everything is looking green, the way FY 25 has started, it appears that bulls were on short term break due to tight liquidity conditions which tends to appear in the last month of every financial year. While the local liquidity condition might improve, the issue of high valuation is still not over. It is still a time to be cautious in terms of not going overboard with taking exposure to a certain stock, selective about what one is buying. The reason, if the street becomes selective and gets into correction mode once again, it is stocks where there has been improvements in the business operating matrix will be able to weather the storm better. These selected stocks depict a strong upward trajectory in their overall average score which is based on five key pillars i.e. earnings, fundamentals, relative valuation, risk and price momentum. This implies that there has been a significant improvement in their market outlook in the given time frame.

Somehow a narrative has been built that if one has to play on increasing rural income, it is either FMCG for two wheelers which are the stocks to look at. Yes it might have been true couple of decades back, but the fact is that in last couple of years there has been many companies which are focussed on purely on rural economy So, they sell their product on in that particular market and when there is boom in that part of the economy, the incremental addition to their margin is high. These companies form the part of the rural income chain. Both the companies which are focussed on increasing agriculture productivity and the non agriculture side of rural incomes have been in focus.

In the last two months, there have been phases where the nifty has witnessed a short correction which lasted for anywhere between two to four days. The only difference is that unlike the past when such correction took place, this time when corrections are taking place mid-cap segment also participated. This is indicative of profit booking happening at the broader market level. At this point of time, one cannot rule out volatility which can bring more damage to stock prices in the mid-cap segment. In such times, if one is taking fresh exposure to equity, ensure that there is some level of quality as far as the business and fundamentals are concerned. These selected stocks depict a strong upward trajectory in their overall average score which is based on five key pillars i.e. earnings, fundamentals, relative valuation, risk and price momentum. This implies that there has been a significant improvement in their market outlook in the given time frame.