Weak rural demand set to hit consumer goods sales in Q3

For fast-moving consumer goods, a sharp price cut in edible oil dragged down value growth. A cooler summer and erratic rainfall impacted beverages and food, while rural markets stayed under pressure due to inflation. Value sales fell 4.5% during October-December, according to Bizom, which analyses data based on orders at nearly 7.5 million kirana stores.

Marico, maker of Parachute and Saffola oils, said the second quarter started on a positive note - with increasing demand trends in rural and urban areas in July - but saw a noticeable drop in overall sentiment, especially in rural areas, during August and early September.

Fast-moving consumer goods companies, most of which derive big share of earnings from rural markets, struggling to meet sales targets. Consumers buying cheaper products, smaller packs.

“While urban markets were steady, the anticipated pickup in rural demand remained elusive,” the maker of Saffola edible oils and Parachute personal care products said in the filing. “Moderating headline inflation, hike in MSPs, easing liquidity pressures, and forecast of a near-normal monsoon continue to fuel hopes of a gradual recovery in rural demand in the course of the year.”

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Sales of daily groceries and essentials increased 8.5% YoY between April and June; the highest increase in a decade. FMCG sales was up 5.3% in rural markets and 12% in cities from a year earlier. However, consumption in villages only grew by 2%. Analysts believe the high increase in sales was largely due to the government offering free food grains, notably atta, which saw a growth of 8.5% during the quarter.

Indian Consumers: While the affluent segment gravitated toward luxury apartments, high-end cars, and premium consumer goods, lower-income brackets grappled with inflation and rural hardships. Sales surged for luxury items, bustling malls and restaurants, alongside a spike in hotel room rates due to heightened demand. Conversely, FMCG companies faced stagnation in selling everyday items like biscuits, soaps, shampoos, and perfumes, yearning for increased consumption rates.

FMCG CEOs say they will reduce prices or increase pack weights to push volumes rather than focus on margins as input costs dip.

Consumer goods companies were earlier expecting demand to recover in the December quarter. While that hasn't materialised, chief executives said slowdown in consumption has come to a halt and that sales of mass-segment products are picking up after a gap of over three years. While volume growth for the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) industry in urban India has been on a positive trajectory since April-June last year, rural markets have grown marginally this calendar year, according to market researcher NielsenIQ.

However, inflation was high for most of FY2023. This means the earnings of low-income families —those in rural areas as well as minimum wage earners in urban areas — have broadly been stagnant. But a moderation in inflation, apart from factors such as increased government spend and a rise in incomes, is expected to aid consumer sentiment and, in turn, spending.