Chakri Lokapriya on how to play defence and premiumisation themes

Stocks of defence firms surged in past few yrs, by over 1,000% in some cases, driven by narrative that they would gain from govt’s domestic procurement push. Now, those stocks are tanking.

“ if you look at most of the largecap names like Reliance, HDFC Bank and if you look slightly longer over the last say 12 months or so, even ICICI Bank has not done anything. Given the fact that both Reliance and HDFC Banks stocks have got a considerable weightage and they have not performed, that actually makes the case that when they start performing next year, there is a good probability that the largecaps might outperform midcaps for some time.”

We have seen huge amount of volatility related to market outlook and direction. And typically, whenever that happens, you see defensive sort of playing out better.

Around 212 stocks of companies with a minimum market capitalisation of Rs 500 crore have eroded investors wealth considerably in the first half of 2023, as per data analysed by ETMarkets. Most of the laggards were midcaps and smallcaps, though the broader markets have outperformed the largecaps in recent months. Adani Group companies dominated the list, with Adani Total Gas falling more than 82% YTD. Infosys was the worst performing stock in the frontline IT pack, and Hindalco Industries was among the severely affected largecap metal companies due to a demand slowdown.

Kolkata, Mar 18 (PTI) Amid market regulator SEBI’s concerns over stretched valuations in the small and mid-cap stocks, analysts were of the opinion that valuations are backed by earnings. However, a section of analysts expect that volatility will continue in the short run but they remain bullish on the long-term prospects of the small and […]

Kunal Shah highlights Nifty Smallcap's LIFO model and market volatility. Nifty index remains bearish, with strong support at 21900-21850. Nifty Bank sees resistance at 47000 and support at 46500. Consider SIP for investment strategies in the market. Shah also says: The support zone at 8200 could serve as an excellent opportunity to add new long positions across the entire basket of stocks.

In a financial year where the number of stocks gained is much larger than stocks that end in red, there are some surprises in the list of stocks that have ended FY 24 in red. Surprise because of two reasons. First, these are all largecap stocks where fundamentals are surely not in doubt. They have consistently seen earnings inching upward. Yes, one can have a debate about the rate of growth at which earnings have been less than satisfactory. But then they have grown, except in 3 cases, where one can argue that earnings are just refusing to move up. The second surprise is that some of them have created great wealth over the long term. So, if they have not been able to gain in one year should one ignore them. The list is filled with major surprises, a company that is amongst the top ten stocks in terms of market capitalization in the Indian stock market. History has shown that in the stock market, if the fundamentals of a company are fine, then sooner or later they make a comeback.

“Segments which are linked to the broader capex side of the story, are showing good growth and the narratives are very strong. As we look towards the economic upcycle over the next few years, some of these companies are going to grow meaningfully 30-40% higher from where they are in terms of their business revenues. ”

“There is a mini bubble in the broader market and one needs to be selective about that. Do not be too quick to jump into an index which has gone up 35% and stocks that have gone up 3X-5X. Okay, the stock has corrected 5%, 10%, let it stabilise, do some homework and then start nibbling.”

The Indian market rebounded after a previous drop, with the S&P BSE Sensex rising over 300 points and the Nifty50 closing above 19600 levels. Metal, healthcare, public sector, and oil & gas stocks saw buying activity, while IT stocks experienced selling. Eris Lifesciences, Aurobindo Pharma, and NTPC were highlighted as stocks to watch. Eris Lifesciences broke out of its consolidation zone, Aurobindo Pharma showed momentum with a breakout above the 5 and 10-day average, and NTPC demonstrated consistent upward movement with support at moving averages.