Key Points
If the influx of temporary residents were to grind to a halt, real gross domestic product would fall considerably below current forecasts, and a recession the firm anticipates in the first half of 2024 would double in length, he wrote in a report released Wednesday...
He used Desjardins recent economic and financial outlook as a baseline since it contains population-growth estimates that are roughly in line with the Bank of Canadas most recent monetary policy report..
The Desjardins forecast assumes there will be roughly half as many non-permanent residents in 2024 as there were last year, then half as many again in 2025, before hitting bottom in 2026 and starting to rise again after that...
But if Canada were to shut the door to temporary residents, real GDP would drop by 0.7% in 2024 and grow an average of 1.78% annually over the following four years, Bartlett said...
On the other hand, if Canada were to double the pace of non-permanent resident admissions, compared with the Desjardins forecast, the country would experience a milder economic slowdown than anticipated and potentially avoid a recession altogether..
