Don't paint them with same brush: 4 NBFCs with strong parentage, 3 with upside potential of up to 25%

The NBFC crisis of 2018 has just completed its 5 years. If one looks at the root cause of the NBFC crisis, beside the lending issues by Yes Bank, it was housing finance companies which were at the centre of the crisis. If one looks globally also, either directly or indirectly, they have been at the root of a financial crisis or a scam. One of the reasons why this sector carries such risk is that the underlying asset, which is real estate itself, is both cyclical and non-transparent. So, now when the real estate market is in uptrend, are the housing finance companies a way to play that up move?

First, it was unsecured loans, then it was housing finance companies and in the last two days, it has been micro finance companies. RBI has been taking stock of each segment of the financial service and tightening the norms so that accidents like 2018 can be avoided. Whenever there is tightening of norms, stocks from that sector tend to correct. The question is whether that correction is something which is an opportunity or not. One part of the answer lies in looking at overall market size and the growth. In the case of the housing finance segment, there is hardly any doubt about growth potential. So, if the growth potential then corrections are opportunities. But that is for companies which are able to adapt to the changing regulatory provisions, they will stand to gain in the long term.

The bull run which started right in the middle of 2020 when covid was ravaging the world, had seen many sectors coming into limelight. One among them was agrochemical. The whole sector got rerated and some of the Indian companies which are focussed on domestic markets got fair share of attention from the street. But then they faced headwinds and have been underperforming, but in case of the companies the headwinds are temporary and the underlying changes these companies are doing makes them worthy of looking as long term investment bets. ET screener powered by Refinitiv’s Stock Report Plus lists down stocks from the chemical sector with high upside potential over the next 12 months, having an average recommendation rating of “buy” or a “hold”.

In 2008, the IPO of a power company got subscribed in less than a minute of its opening and the size of that issue was Rs 11,563 crore. This just shows the desire to own power sector stocks at that point of time. From those days of frenzy to the nadir in 2014, when power companies were on the top of the list of NPA of the banks. Power companies have seen both the extreme of valuations. It is a sector where after many failures and to some extent a consolidation, some companies have emerged which know how to deal with all kinds of economic and industry cycles. That is probably the reason why a number of companies from the power sector have seen a sharp re-rating in the last one year. Hoping the survivors have learnt their lessons.

Sometimes a rationale which goes against owning a set of stocks at the start of a bull run, comes in handy in the case of a correction in stock markets. There is one sector where business updates from companies talk in the common lingo. First one is: growth will be muted. Second, margins will be under pressure due to cost inflation and third, competition is increasing in different categories. The sector is FMCG where the narrative is that it is a bad time to buy FMCG stocks. Probably, it is time to take a contrarian call in this sector.

While the recent performance of stocks like REC, PFC and recently listed IRDEA has brought focus back to one segment of power companies. But the fact is that in the last few years, the sector has been going through a consolidation. Some of it was forced by the banks due to many companies going under the IBC and some due to the fact that any industry which has gone through a troubled phase of almost a decade, the players who are able to survive tend to get more attention because they have learnt the art of surviving a tough phase which is one most important feature for long term survival. Power sector stocks are now catching up with what the market has witnessed in the last few years.

Just a day after the biggest wealth creator from the NBFC space witnessed a sharp cut, it might appear that NBFC is not a right sector to look at. But go back to history and one would see that the time to look at a sector is when something which is perceived as negative. In the last three months, whether it is the consumer lending or housing finance segment, the RBI has been tightening the laws and regulations for provisioning. The question is why RBI is doing it and whether it will give a boost to a higher and cleaner growth. By cleaner growth, a growth which is less volatile and less accident prone. Given the fact the NBFC sector has a history of meeting with accidents and creating problems for a lot of sectors. The answer tilts toward yes, this regulatory tightening is good and in long term value accretive.

After inline numbers from TCS and disappointment by infy, it might appear that Q4 earning season for the IT sector has taken a back seat. That might not be the case, as Q4 results will throw a light on how individual companies are managing the situation in a changed environment. Stock Reports Plus, powered by Refinitiv, is a comprehensive research report that evaluates five key components of 4,000+ listed stocks - earnings, fundamentals, relative valuation, risk and price momentum to generate standardized scores.

While there are clear signs of large cap stocks making a comeback on the street, it is reflected both in movement of Nifty sensex. The problem is that as a word the “large cap” is so open ended and we keep seeing stocks moving in and out of that category which are the ones which one should focus on. If one looks at the last six months of the stock market moves, a new industrial house appears to be born and has caught the fancy of the street. Yes, we are talking about PSU as a set of companies. It is not owned by one individual but by the government of India so there is an element of the largest shareholder being one entity and that is why it may be called a new industrial house. Beside the ownership another common thread running in these companies is the impact of the clean up and restructuring of policy framework which has come in different sectors and in these companies in particular. So there is high probability and yes only high probability of these stocks doing relatively better in stormy conditions on the street.