Climate Risk Is Becoming Uninsurable. Better Forecasting Can Help.

Some Americans are moving away from riskier places such as Florida, while others are foregoing cover..

Underwriting requires confidence that models somewhat accurately reflect risks, which climate change is amplifying in scary, unknown ways..

Conversely, catastrophe risk," or CAT-risk, models use historical data to infer the future probability of hurricanes, earthquakes and the like, as well as the vulnerability of buildings and structures..

Bristol-based Fathom trains models with data on rainfall, river behavior and tides where available, to infer how floods behave in similar places across the globe..

Researchers at Fathom, which built the flood model used by First Street but has since broken off the relationship, warned in a 2021 paper that the accuracy of predictions made by these types of models remains hard to assess..

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