Better option for uncertain times: Two unwanted sectors & 5 strong balance sheets

In this hype, many retail investors are rushing into the market. They may be influenced by the euphoria of Nifty at all-time highs and fear of missing out. However, in this rush to participate and benefit from the markets they are ignoring the risks associated with it. Risk is inseparable from the world of investing.

This week there was a sharp correction in the mid-cap index, and market breadth was also weak. This should serve as a warning to all those who are buying stocks without bothering to look at what is the business of the company. The way correction panned out, there is higher probability of a correction in mid-cap space continuing if there is more trouble with Nifty. But rather than bothering about what will happen to nifty in the next few weeks or quarters, long term investors looking to take exposure to the mid-cap should focus on individual companies and their underlying business. At the same time, because overall valuations are high, be ready for underperformance for some time and focus on the long term.

It is after a long period of time, that bears have finally made their presence felt on the street. Whether it is, large, mid or small cap market breadth in all segments witnessed a sharp decline. In such times, if one is looking to buy stocks it would be better to look at stocks where some developments have made analysts turn bullish on them. These selected stocks depict a strong upward trajectory in their overall average score which is based on five key pillars i.e. earnings, fundamentals, relative valuation, risk and price momentum. This implies that there has been a significant improvement in their market outlook in the given time frame.

There is an age old saying on Dalal street, when stocks stop reacting to bad news, it means that bears have run out of ammunition and probably it is time to look at them. Similarly when stocks stop reacting to positive news, probably bulls will not be having a say in the near term. At this point of time, there is an interesting phenomenon which is playing out. While at the overall market basis, it appears that bulls may not have much to say in near term. But at the same time, there are two sectors, which have been getting bombarded with bad news for the last two years. Whether it is macro or micro, news or opinion, literally everything which has been said about them is either negative or at best neutral. But if one looks at price action on the counters on any bad news or even brokerage downgrades which is essentially an opinion stock prices are refusing to fall. Historically one of these two sectors were considered defensive,as stocks from this sector tend to outperform in bearish markets. So, is it the time to go against the narrative of negative news and get them on the watch list?

As broader market indices witness minor consolidation, which normally happens when they are close to all time high as some resistance is bound to come. Some stocks have witnessed consistent improvement in their scores. The selected stocks depict a strong upward trajectory in their overall average score which is based on five key pillars i.e. earnings, fundamentals, relative valuation, risk and price momentum. This implies that there has been a significant improvement in their market outlook in the given time frame.

On Monday, when the whole market was reeling under pressure, there was one sector which was able to keep its head above water both at the level of indices and internal market breadth of that sector. It was IT sectors, it is not the first time that this relative outperformance has been witnessed on the street, in recent months, there have been instances where on the day market has been under pressure, IT stocks have moved upward. The only difference is frequency, magnitude and the breadth of the sector which is involved on the day of outperformance by the sector. Frequency has increased, more IT from large cap are able to relatively outperform and magnitude of up move is better as compared to earlier. Stock Reports Plus, powered by Refinitiv, is a comprehensive research report that evaluates five key components of 4,000+ listed stocks - earnings, fundamentals, relative valuation, risk and price momentum to generate standardized scores.

While the correction has been going on in the market since the middle of July, it is only on days like Monday where everyone on the street feels that equity markets are correcting. It is only a matter of time that the concept of relative valuation will come into play and large caps will get more attention from the market. Stocks from different sectors are making to the list, this week, stocks from Oil refining and marketing, private banks, insurance, auto ancillary and fertilizer space. ET screener powered by Refinitiv’s Stock Report Plus lists down quality stocks with high upside potential over the next 12 months, having an average recommendation rating of “buy” or strong buy . The screener applies different algorithms for all BSE and NSE stocks.

It is after a long period of time, that mid-cap stocks have seen some correction. All those investors who have high exposure to mid-caps in their portfolio have probably gone through two different emotions. Should I sell? Should I buy more? For all those who have gone through these emotions. Let the market be volatile, don't make volatile decisions. Corrections are part of any market and especially when valuations are high, the frequency and magnitude of correction will be higher. For all those who are looking to deploy more money and are focussed on mid caps, it would be better to put more checks and balances, both qualitative and quantitative and be selective in buying stocks. More importantly, even after putting in all the efforts of checks and balances, be ready to see a short term drawn down in the value of your portfolio, because if there is a deep correction in the markets, mid-cap stocks tend to shed more weight.