These largecaps have ‘strong buy’ & ‘buy’ recos and upside potential of more than 20%

In the last two months of the market, while the midcaps have done well, though the pace at which the outperformance was taking place has slowed down. So, there is a profit booking taking place in different parts and sectors. Part of this profit booking is due to the fact the valuations are high and probability that it would continue. At this point of time one should also focus on reducing risk.In reducing market risks, investors should integrate both quantitative and qualitative criteria to assess stocks, aligning expectations with realistic market performances and avoiding impulsive shifts based on short-term fluctuations. This involves a disciplined approach to examining fundamentals, particularly focusing on crucial financial ratios such as Return on Equity (ROE) and Return on Capital Employed (ROCE). These measures help in evaluating a company's efficiency and profitability, guiding investors away from making hasty decisions which are mostly done in a bullish market.

After a sharp rebound, while nifty is trading in green territory, if one looks at the overall market breadth. There are more declines than advances and that is largely due to market breadth in the mid-cap segment. This is indicative of profit booking happening at the broader market level. At this point of time, one cannot rule out more profit booking which can bring more damage to stock prices in the mid-cap segment. In such times, if one is taking fresh exposure to equity, ensure that there is some level of quality as far as the business and fundamentals are concerned. These selected stocks depict a strong upward trajectory in their overall average score which is based on five key pillars i.e. earnings, fundamentals, relative valuation, risk and price momentum. This implies that there has been a significant improvement in their market outlook in the given time frame.

Unlike last quarter of 2023, when nifty and sensex used to witness correction and mid-cap index was able move higher. Since the start of 2024, the mid-cap index is also participating in the correction, clearly indicating that some profit booking is taking place in this segment of the market. Having said that, if one looks at the flow of money to the mutual funds, a good amount of it is still coming in funds which are focussed on mid or small cap. There is no way one can fight with liquidity, if it is going to mid caps and they are moving up irrespective of valuations or quality of stocks one cannot argue. But the only thing which as an investor one can do is to be careful when taking exposure to this segment of the market. Stay away from stocks where there is a narrative that this sector will do well because of ABCD reasons or the company will get such and such orders worth this much. There is enough evidence in history to show that more than anything else, checks and balances are most important at this point of time, while making investment decisions.

After a strong phase of outperformance , mid cap stocks are witnessing a a wave of profit booking move. Unlike the past few weeks, where a rotational profit booking was taking place, this time the correction is taking place across the board. Now how long it will continue will depend on how the SEBI advisory pans out and also how nifty moves. During this phase, analysts are bullish on select stocks from different sectors, some of which are either the leaders of their sector or part of the top three companies which are known to be well managed.

It is after a long period of time, that mid-cap stocks have seen some correction. All those investors who have high exposure to mid-caps in their portfolio have probably gone through two different emotions. Should I sell? Should I buy more? For all those who have gone through these emotions. Let the market be volatile, don't make volatile decisions. Corrections are part of any market and especially when valuations are high, the frequency and magnitude of correction will be higher. For all those who are looking to deploy more money and are focussed on mid caps, it would be better to put more checks and balances, both qualitative and quantitative and be selective in buying stocks. More importantly, even after putting in all the efforts of checks and balances, be ready to see a short term drawn down in the value of your portfolio, because if there is a deep correction in the markets, mid-cap stocks tend to shed more weight.

There has been a catch up by the large cap in the last three weeks, but given the fact that valuation of mid-caps have also increased the valuation differential which is key behind the possible mean reversion trade is still valid . Given the fact that the differential between, mid and large cap stocks has increased very sharply in the last one year, if the market remains under the control of bulls there is a probability that over the next few quarters markets may see a mean reversion. ET screener powered by Refinitiv’s Stock Report Plus lists down quality stocks with high upside potential over the next 12 months, having an average recommendation rating of “buy” or strong buy . The screener applies different algorithms for all BSE and NSE stocks.

We are seeing a mean reversion phenomenon in the markets where the mid- and small-cap indices both peaked in October and are now experiencing a correction at a rate faster than the Nifty said Deepak Jasani, head of retail research at HDFC Securities. Investors display a sentiment of risk aversion and are not willing to wait longer, and hence are pulling out of the market booking profits wherever available or cutting losses.

Last week two noticeable things happened in the market, first a sharp correction in mid-cap stocks and then on Friday sudden sharp recovery which was led by large cap stocks. To some it might appear what is noticeable in this ? This has happened many times in the last one year. The only difference is that it happened in the backdrop of the fact that even regulators are getting worried about what is happening to mid and small cap space and there has been an advisory. To the uninitiated, regulatory advisory tends to work in equity markets. This essentially means the probability of higher incremental flows to large cap stocks. Second, the kind of stocks which led the up move on Friday, it appears Nifty may do some catching up with mid and small cap indices in coming months. We take a look at stocks where even in large cap space, the broader financial matrix is better placed and sectors have one or the other tailwinds. This is not to say that if these stocks cannot see a correction, only higher probability of outperforming in strong correction. Yes, only higher probability.

Even markets are volatile, there is an underlying bias to volatility, it could be bullish or bearish. This bias is reflected in two things, first the market breadth which is essentially how many stocks are moving upward or downward. On a large number of days, market breadth is showing that its bias is toward bears. Because this correction is coming at a time when the global situation is not so good, both in terms of interest rate and also higher geopolitical risks, it would be better that “caution” should be added when decisions are taken about investing and sticking to largecap. ET screener powered by Refinitiv’s Stock Report Plus applies different algorithms & filters to all BSE and NSE stocks, and lists stocks that fulfill the various criteria as specified into the algorithms & filters to find those which might help navigate the stock market.