Diversify the risks even in largecap segment: 5 largecap stocks with upside potential of 25-33%

Friday’s up move in nifty might make some think that correction is over, but give the fact that valuations are high and global markets are still grappling with possibility of hawkish stance of US fed, in such conditions, it would be better to add the words like portfolio rejig, caution, fundamentals and valuations to one’s thought process while buying stocks. Refinitiv’s Stock Report Plus which lists stocks with high upside potential over the next 12 months, having an average recommendation rating of “buy” or strong buy .

At a time when everything on the street appears good and green, there is a case of being selective. The reason, if it is in a raging bull market, the street never stays in this all good and green mode forever.when the street starts to become selective, it is stocks where there are some improvement in the business operating matrix tend to weather the storm better. So as an investor, one needs to look at every sector and company and their operating and valuation matrix separately. These selected stocks depict a strong upward trajectory in their overall average score which is based on five key pillars i.e. earnings, fundamentals, relative valuation, risk and price momentum. This implies that there has been a significant improvement in their market outlook in the given time frame.

The kind of correction the broader market is witnessing in the last few days, the financial services sector had seen that few months ago. Infact, if one looks at the overall picture this phase of correction was led by one private sector bank and the other parts of the BFSI came under pressure at the start of 2024. For two reasons, first is that RBI has been doing a policy tightening and regulatory cleanup excerise, so there were some margin hits coming in earnings. Second, they are heavily owned by foreign portfolio investors who have been sellers in the Indian markets. A large number of times they give an advance indication of what the broader market might look like in near term. Similarly, the other way round, these stocks on a relative basis have performed better than others in the last few days. The first streak of relative outperformance is good enough indication for them to be brought on watchlist.

After a short rational correction, bulls were once again seen on every corner of the street. While being bullish, it is extremely important not to forget the fact valuations are high and everything seems to be priced to perfection. In such conditions, for investors who are looking to increase their exposure to stocks, it would be better to focus on fundamentals and if there is any improvement in them which has made the overall score go up in the last one month then have a look at those stocks. These selected stocks depict a strong upward trajectory in their overall average score which is based on five key pillars i.e. earnings, fundamentals, relative valuation, risk and price momentum. This implies that there has been a significant improvement in their market outlook in the given time frame.

Earning seasons not only helps in judging what is happening to individual companies but more importantly it helps gauge the undercurrent of the markets. When the street does not react with a sharp spike in price when a company announces better than expected results then it indicates lower liquidity and life could be tougher for bulls. If the market reacts to negative surprises or what is commonly called below estimate by any company with a minor cut in stock price, that means that liquidity is very high and the street gets into a mood of giving pardon. Refinitiv’s Stock Report Plus which lists stocks with high upside potential over the next 12 months, having an average recommendation rating of “buy” or strong buy .

Hence, generally, they provide a low dividend payout. Given the high growth outlook, they are in high demand and trade at a high valuation, like Price/Earnings Per Share (P/E), which may be substantially higher than the market and peers range.

If one goes by what is happening on the street today, we probably are once again going back to a situation where mid-caps are charting their own journey and bulls are backing it. While the valuations are expensive, there is no point in fighting with liquidity, if it is going to mid caps and they are moving up irrespective of valuations or quality of stocks one cannot argue. But the only thing which as an investor one can do is to be careful when taking exposure to this segment of the market. Stay away from stocks where there is a narrative of stocks doing well that are not backed by fundamentals and track record. If the market stays like this, very soon once again there will be no dearth of tips floating in whatsapp groups and telegram channels. But there is enough evidence in history to show that finally it is earnings and valuations which decide what would be the price of stock price and clues about earnings come from just two things, sector and the management. So, focus on the sector and the quality and ability of management.

After what can be described as a short phase of correction, mid-caps are once again on a roll. Both in terms of market breadth and absolute gain, midcap are leading the rally. The valuations which were high have moved even higher, so while there cannot be an argument against the liquidity, there are some safeguard which become important before one take exposure to the stocks and especially mid-caps as the correction in this space can be very brutal. ET screener powered by Refinitiv’s Stock Report Plus applies different algorithms & filters to all BSE and NSE stocks, and lists stocks which fulfill the various criteria as specified into the algorithms & filters to find those which might help navigate mid cap space.