Capex revival : 5 stocks from capital good and engineering sector; with upside potential of up to 35 %

Every business has its own capital requirement matrix and this is what makes them prone to risks of interest rate cycle. Of all the stocks, which our algorithms come up with, we took companies from three sectors. On the list, there is one of the biggest wealth creators from the specialty chemical space. ET screener powered by Refinitiv’s Stock Report Plus lists stocks with high upside potential over the next 12 months, having an average recommendation rating of “buy” or strong buy .

According to Raamdeo Agrawal, Chairman of MOFSL, pure internet companies such as Zomato, Swiggy, and PolicyBazaar can become large players in terms of profit pool. Companies like Bajaj Finance, Zerodha, and Angel One, which are traditional businesses leveraging the power of technology, are also poised for accelerated growth. Another area for growth is the real estate industry, which is showing profits after years of losses.

In 2008, the IPO of a power company got subscribed in less than a minute of its opening and the size of that issue was Rs 11,563 crore. This just shows the desire to own power sector stocks at that point of time. From those days of frenzy to the nadir in 2014, when power companies were on the top of the list of NPA of the banks. Power companies have seen both the extreme of valuations. It is a sector where after many failures and to some extent a consolidation, some companies have emerged which know how to deal with all kinds of economic and industry cycles. That is probably the reason why a number of companies from the power sector have seen a sharp re-rating in the last one year. Hoping the survivors have learnt their lessons.

Recently in review of the PLI schemes, the government indicated that things are on track and some of the results would be visible soon. Especially in the chemical and pharmaceutical space are doing well, this is not to say that electronics and others are not doing well. Whenever capacity expands in any industry, one segment which is bound to get its order book better is capital goods and engineering companies. Over the years some companies have changed their business model in a way that they are a mix of capital goods and engineering companies as they provided turnkey solutions. We look at companies with an overlapping nature of business which give supply capital good and engineering service to different sectors.

With the focus of government policies increasingly turning favourable toward the manufacturing sector, some of the capital goods and engineering companies are making a comeback on the analysts list.

On a day when the majority of the stocks are trading with a cut, one set of stocks which have been able to log in gains has been from a space which cannot be very clearly defined. The reason, what would you call a company which makes both, water geysers , and electrical wires, a white goods or electrical goods company.From the year 2015 to 2020, companies with strong brands in different sectors which were considered as commodity plays got re-rated by the street. The expansion in price earnings multiples of these companies led to big wealth creation.For the last more close to four years, with some more companies getting listed in the same sector and some headwinds emerging we saw these companies consolidating between a very broad range. Is the phase of valuation readjustment over, probably a time to get them on the watch list.

One sector which bore the brunt of the winter of capital spending was the capital goods and engineering sector. However, thanks to capital expenditure by the government, segment by segment they are making a comeback. First road and infrastructure, then defence and railways. The million dollar question is what next ? There is a high probability that not one but a host of sectors and their sub segments might be getting added to the list as private sector capex shows signs of revival. This would mean that more engineering and capital good companies would see a better order book. The only difference is that unlike railways and defence where one large order comes to be implemented over years. When orders from a pharma, chemical cement or a private sector power company comes, they tend to be smaller in size but to be implemented in a shorter time frame.

While the recent performance of stocks like REC, PFC and recently listed IRDEA has brought focus back to one segment of power companies. But the fact is that in the last few years, the sector has been going through a consolidation. Some of it was forced by the banks due to many companies going under the IBC and some due to the fact that any industry which has gone through a troubled phase of almost a decade, the players who are able to survive tend to get more attention because they have learnt the art of surviving a tough phase which is one most important feature for long term survival. Power sector stocks are now catching up with what the market has witnessed in the last few years.

One change for making higher provision for unsecured loans and we see all the NBFC stocks tumbling. But four weeks later what is the situation, no one on the street is even talking about it and stocks have crossed the level when the announcement was made. The fact is that some regulatory measures are indicators of overall growth potential which the regulator is just trying to moderate in order to avoid overheating of some segment of industry. The other question is that an industry like NBFC which is bound to grow given the fact that capital was, is and will remain a scarce commodity, which are the benchmark which one should use to take exposure with a long term perspective.