Play on faster economic growth; 5 logistics companies with an upside potential of upto 24%

Logistics is a very broad term, right from warehousing companies to goods transporters all form part of this chain. But if one looks at the listed space in India, it is transportations companies which dominate. Logistics as a sector has seen many headwinds both in terms of operations and structural challenges. Any sector which goes through this phase tends to bring out clear winners. We take a look at how analysts have rated companies in this space. The list of the logistic companies is based on upside estimated by the analysts, with the highest potential stock coming on the top of the list.

The whole logistics sector has seen a major shake-up in the last few years, right from tech aggregators who came into the scene with a promise to disrupt, challenges that Covid brought on the table to a phase where oil prices become a pain point for margins. After all the challenges, the sector has emerged stronger as some companies restructured their operations to stay profitable. There are many facts about the logistics industry which might surprise many. Just to mention a few, a metal major has such a large fleet of owned trucks that the unit itself can be listed as a separate company and probably would figure in the top 5 logistic companies. Last year at one point of time, the market cap of one single company was higher than the market cap of all the private sector companies put together and interestingly that company was in the red.

While the recent performance of stocks like REC, PFC and recently listed IRDEA has brought focus back to one segment of power companies. But the fact is that in the last few years, the sector has been going through a consolidation. Some of it was forced by the banks due to many companies going under the IBC and some due to the fact that any industry which has gone through a troubled phase of almost a decade, the players who are able to survive tend to get more attention because they have learnt the art of surviving a tough phase which is one most important feature for long term survival. Power sector stocks are now catching up with what the market has witnessed in the last few years.

If one looks at how one sector after another has been recovering, engineering which overlaps in some part with capital goods has been one of the last ones to see a recovery in real business sense. It is only in the last few months that one would these companies announce that either they have got orders or any other sort of other contracts. If one looks at the orders or contract wins, a number of them are showing quarter on quarter increase for almost the three quarters. There is a reason why these companies were last on the list to show revival. Only when the user industry which in this case ranges from chemical, and sugar railways to literally everyone else involved in manufacturing and utilities embarks upon a capacity expansion only then these engineering cum capital good companies would get orders and show an improvement. In the first phase of economic recovery, it was more of repairing both balance sheets and policy framework that took place. It is only recently that we have seen companies get confident and a new capex cycle getting started. Probably that is why some of the mid-sized players have been able to outperform even a volatile market.

Why do multinational companies, whose half of the products are outsourced to much smaller manufacturing units still enjoy a higher multiples than many others. Simple answer, they own the brands and hence the pricing power. There are many sectors where brands play an important role. Branded apparel space has seen many tailwinds, right from implementation of GST which removed the tax arbitrage between organized and unorganized players to something which is not heard much on the street, which is China plus one sourcing. Is this industry finally reaching a stage where scale and brands will get desired valuations.

In 2008, the IPO of a power company got subscribed in less than a minute of its opening and the size of that issue was Rs 11,563 crore. This just shows the desire to own power sector stocks at that point of time. From those days of frenzy to the nadir in 2014, when power companies were on the top of the list of NPA of the banks. Power companies have seen both the extreme of valuations. It is a sector where after many failures and to some extent a consolidation, some companies have emerged which know how to deal with all kinds of economic and industry cycles. That is probably the reason why a number of companies from the power sector have seen a sharp re-rating in the last one year. Hoping the survivors have learnt their lessons.

If one looks at how the policies have panned in the last nine years. It is clear that one by one every sector has been looked upon and if that sector has been getting government subsidies in any form, the government has tried to improve the delivery mechanism of that subsidy by plugging leakage in a manner that the right person gets the subsidy and the government gets the intended result. In the case of the fertilizer industry, it started with urea getting coated with neem which was not a financial measure but had a financial impact. Similarly, there were some measures which in the short term impacted some fertilizer companies but over a period, there has been a clean up going in the industry. Will the street be having a re-look at them ?

Logistics is a very broad term, right from warehousing companies to goods transporters all form part of this chain. But if one looks at the listed space in India, it is transportations companies which dominate. Logistics as a sector has seen many headwinds both in terms of operations and structural challenges. Any sector which goes through this phase tends to bring out clear winners and that is when we tend to see a re-rating. It is a sector which is direct play on the economic growth of a country. The reason, if the economy is doing well, more goods will be produced and they will have to be transported and that is why in large developed economies, logistic companies form part of a very important transportation index. Given the recent GDP numbers have been better than expected and it is projected that for the next couple of years India would be the fastest growing economy, the logistic sector is likely to remain in focus.