Key Points
Global headwinds and expensive stock valuations necessitate a cautious approach toward Indian equities in the short term as the country prepares for next years national elections, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc...
The sharp rally since end-March, expensive valuations and global macro risks (high oil, high US rates, strong dollar) warrant a tactically conservative stance over the next three to six months, analysts including Sunil Koul and Amorita Goel wrote in a note...
While this years surge in equity markets makes for a great backdrop for Prime Minister Narendra Modi who is seeking a third term in office a sense of caution is building..
Having climbed more than 15% from a March low, Indias NSE Nifty 50 Index is trading at 18.2 times its one-year forward earnings, making it the most expensive national benchmark among major Asian markets, according to data compiled by Bloomberg..
While the gauge has rallied more than 10% in the six months preceding election results in four out of the past seven instances since 1996, its valuations and midcap stocks performance look stretched relative to prior election cycles, the Goldman analysts said.. Yet, they said Indian equities implied volatility is low and not pricing in any significant event risk from elections as an opinion poll suggests Modi will retain power...
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