Corrections are short term, focus on fundamental tailwinds: Banking stocks that may deliver more than 20%

The brokerage expects banks under its coverage to report a strong 44% YoY growth in net profit in the last quarter of FY23, led by a 30% growth in pre-provision operating profit.

Banking sector is probably the best proxy play to the Indian economy. The reason, banks provide the lifeline of capital to all the sectors which form part of any economy, whether it is retail loans or corporate loans. So when these sectors do well, banks have a higher credit growth. So, if the economy is likely to grow faster than there is no way banks are not going to do well. Because there is a certain amount of ownership overhang in private sector banks and also the fact that voices from India’s largest bank are expecting to witness a revival of the capex cycle, it would be better to have a basket of stock from both segments of the banking sector. Until yesterday, the correction in bank stocks was largely led by HDFC bank, today, some of the PSU banks have witnessed some minor decline from their high’s. At this point of time, it could be just another round of profit booking but it would be better to keep an eye given the a segment where fundamentals have improved after decades and street has just started to take that into account, for long term investors, opportunities might be present.

There are some businesses whose underlying nature is such that they don't have any sudden spike in their profits. However at the same time, there is constant growth. The growth could be because of many reasons, it may be because of the fact that penetration of that good or service is very low and over a period of time as it improves, both top and bottom line keep moving upward. In some cases, it could be because of the movement of business from the unorganized sector to the organized sector. It could also be because of the fact that the need is such that if required spending on it cannot be postponed. In the case of diagnostic business, it is all the three. But there is another side to it, how the street is treating these businesses when it comes to valuations. In case of diagnostics, from dizzy heights of valuation in 2021 to today where it is being seen as a sector where there is nothing worth looking at this point of time due to multiple issues. Yes, there are real issues with the business, but not a bad time to get them on watchlist at least.

In the correction that markets saw in the last four trading sessions, the financial sector stocks, right from banks to other players also declined. But if one looks at the magnitude and the internal breadth of the sector it was much better as compared to a month back when the market correction was started by HDFC bank. There was a bit of profit booking in the PSU bank space, but once again after a small corrective move, things were back with a strong intraday recovery. The way things are panning out in the industry with regulatory tightening taking place, there is very likely that we might see a divergence in performance of different segments of this sector which has the highest correlation with the GDP growth. Better balance sheets and strong franchise are likely to be the differentiating factors. The factor which is largely technical in nature is the shareholding patterns that will also impact the performance of the stocks from this sector.

It is after a long period of time, that bears have finally made their presence felt on the street. Whether it is, large, mid or small cap market breadth in all segments witnessed a sharp decline. In such times, if one is looking to buy stocks it would be better to look at stocks where some developments have made analysts turn bullish on them. These selected stocks depict a strong upward trajectory in their overall average score which is based on five key pillars i.e. earnings, fundamentals, relative valuation, risk and price momentum. This implies that there has been a significant improvement in their market outlook in the given time frame.

“If you look at the 20-day moving average, it has been a great card for that accelerated trend in the midcap index. By mid September, we started to test that 20-day moving average again. Two weeks ago, we broke below it and now we are seeing some choppy volatility around it.”

It is not the first time that RBI has taken measures to curtail unsecured lending. In past also there has been instances when banks and NBCF’s got aggressive to push credit growth and RBI has to tame them, first through verbal advice in public forum than then through rules and regulations. But the fact is that in capital starved countries like India, demand for credit will always remain high. This means that despite all the short term issues, in the long term a good lender which has a risk management system in place will be able to grow its top and bottom line.

In the last two months, there have been phases where the nifty has witnessed a short correction which lasted for anywhere between two to four days. The only difference is that unlike the past when such correction took place, this time when corrections are taking place mid-cap segment also participated. This is indicative of profit booking happening at the broader market level. At this point of time, one cannot rule out volatility which can bring more damage to stock prices in the mid-cap segment. In such times, if one is taking fresh exposure to equity, ensure that there is some level of quality as far as the business and fundamentals are concerned. These selected stocks depict a strong upward trajectory in their overall average score which is based on five key pillars i.e. earnings, fundamentals, relative valuation, risk and price momentum. This implies that there has been a significant improvement in their market outlook in the given time frame.

Bargain hunters are swirling around beaten-down shares of U.S. banks, even as skeptical investors say the sector’s problems are likely to persist for some time.

One change for making higher provision for unsecured loans and we see all the NBFC stocks tumbling. The short term reaction of the street is a mix of two things. First the technical position in the markets, whether the stock or sector has seen a recent runup or not and secondly emotional one without understanding the working of a sector or a company. Sometimes these short term reactions are opportunities as the macro picture of the sector is far better and stronger as compared to what is being perceived in the short term due to one action or the newsflow.