Indian equity market’s dream run is up against PSUs with low-floating stocks. Regulation is key

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Key Points

Indias emergence as the fastest-growing economy, its deft macro-economic management, relative political stability ensuring continuity in policymaking, emphasis on massive infrastructure rollout, embrace of leading digital technologies for delivery of public goods, a sweet geo-strategic position where it is wooed by the US-led West while maintaining its strategic autonomy, a $4 trillion economy with a young demographic, rising aspirations, and increasing affluence among the top 10-15 per cent of the population mark India as the final frontier that multinational corporations (MNCs) simply cannot ignore...

Trends like friendshoring and diversifying supply chains away from an increasingly hostile China, leveraging government initiatives of production-linked incentives (PLIs) for manufacturing in various sectors to reduce import dependence, and using such scalable, highly efficient, lower-cost operations to target export markets have led to renewed interest among both foreign and domestic investors in Indian equity markets...

The table below illustrates 15 government-owned companies and banks where low floating stocks available for trading have heightened concerns about large-scale speculative trading volumes distorting the discovery of intrinsic or fair value of these businesses...

Some of the banks have cleaned up their balance sheets by making adequate provisions for past non-performing loans and are back on the steady path to recovery, but are now trading at valuations significantly higher than their larger, more-efficient, and profitable public sector peers which, due to their large floating stocks, remain shielded from large-scale speculative shenanigans...

What is ironic is that in view of the dream run in Indian equities and taking advantage of frothy valuations, private sector promoters and private equity funds have sold shares worth more than Rs 1,60,000 crore in the last one year to monetise their holdings partially or fully, but the government has fallen woefully short in meeting its modest disinvestment target of Rs 61,000 for FY 23-24..

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