Is the worst behind them? 5 agrochemical stocks with upside potential of up to 38%

While they come under the broad umbrella word of “Chemical sector” the fact is that each specialty chemical company is literally an industry itself with its own operating matrix of supply chain and demand. There are some companies where the trouble in China means big bonus, while for others it might mean supply chain issues which means that their production in India’ get impacted. At this point there are many parts of the chemical industry which are facing headwinds due to oversupply and dumping by China. But are well prepared given multiple changes which some segments of the chemical sector have seen in India in just the last three years. We look at the stocks where analysts have “hold” recommendation at a time when chinese headwinds are blowing.

Majority of businesses have a cycle of ups and downs. The question is whether the downs are cyclical in nature or they have come up due to one off event. Agro chemical sector is in a down cycle due to one off events. Sudden increase in inventory in the industry, oversupply which came into markets to resumption of the Chinese production post covid curbs. That is the reason that the sector which did extremely well in the first part of the bull run which starred post covid has been underperforming for some time. Given the fact that in the last three months, the problem of over inventory in the system has started to reduce. Is the worst of the issues behind the agro chemical companies?

While they had been listed for a long period of time, Indian companies in agro chemical space got the real attention of the street only four years back. As many tailwinds appeared on the scene, there was strong re-rating of the whole sector. Typically, what happens when a sector gets re-rated is that valuations run ahead of time and there are too many eyes which are watching the sector. So, if there is even a little bit of disappointment, the selling pressure is also equally high. In the case of agro chemicals there were some real problems which came up soon after the re-rating took place. Chinese companies become overactive and dumping, globally inventory levels reaching very high for some segments. As every business has a cycle, it is worthwhile to bring stocks on your watchlist when the business cycle is down.

Pharma stocks had been underperforming for a very long time. Some time USFDA issues, at other instances of pricing pressure in US markets have been troubling the sector. However some tailwinds have emerged recently, shortage in some segments in the generic market in the US have led to sharp spikes in prices. The list is based on upside estimated by the analysts, with the highest potential stock coming on the top of the list.

From being a must have in portfolio, AMC stocks have seen a long phase of underperformance and now clean out block trades. A headline which says that SEBi has delayed making changes in TER makes AMC stocks move up sharply. A delay in what appears to be a challenge, is enough to bring back interest on the counters. Is it an indication that once the “ challenge” is out of the way, these stocks will again regain their valuations back.

There are some businesses whose underlying nature is such that they don't have any sudden spike in their profits. However at the same time, there is constant growth. The growth could be because of many reasons, it may be because of the fact that penetration of that good or service is very low and over a period of time as it improves, both top and bottom line keep moving upward. In some cases, it could be because of the movement of business from the unorganized sector to the organized sector. It could also be because of the fact that the need is such that if required spending on it cannot be postponed. In the case of diagnostic business, it is all the three. But there is another side to it, how the street is treating these businesses when it comes to valuations. In case of diagnostics, from dizzy heights of valuation in 2021 to today where it is being seen as a sector where there is nothing worth looking at this point of time due to multiple issues. Yes, there are real issues with the business, but not a bad time to get them on watchlist at least.

Once again everything is looking green, the way FY 25 has started, it appears that bulls were on short term break due to tight liquidity conditions which tends to appear in the last month of every financial year. While the local liquidity condition might improve, the issue of high valuation is still not over. It is still a time to be cautious in terms of not going overboard with taking exposure to a certain stock, selective about what one is buying. The reason, if the street becomes selective and gets into correction mode once again, it is stocks where there has been improvements in the business operating matrix will be able to weather the storm better. These selected stocks depict a strong upward trajectory in their overall average score which is based on five key pillars i.e. earnings, fundamentals, relative valuation, risk and price momentum. This implies that there has been a significant improvement in their market outlook in the given time frame.

However if one looks at the history of financial markets, there are phases where multiple challenges have come up for the sector at the sametime. But given the savings matrix which Indian’s have, despite all that may have happened, on an overall basis the financial services industry has grown and some select stocks have given decent returns to their shareholders.

While the recent performance of stocks like REC, PFC and recently listed IRDEA has brought focus back to one segment of power companies. But the fact is that in the last few years, the sector has been going through a consolidation. Some of it was forced by the banks due to many companies going under the IBC and some due to the fact that any industry which has gone through a troubled phase of almost a decade, the players who are able to survive tend to get more attention because they have learnt the art of surviving a tough phase which is one most important feature for long term survival. Power sector stocks are now catching up with what the market has witnessed in the last few years.