Bond yields slump as government cuts market borrowing plan for FY25

The bond market traders keenly watch the government’s fiscal deficit target and market borrowing plans in the Union Budget for directional cues. The trajectory of Indian government bond yields will be influenced by the Budget targets and the upcoming US Federal Reserve policy meeting.

In a rare move, the interim budget for FY25 clubbed the government's disinvestment and asset monetisation targets, instead of declaring them separately. The combined realisation is budgeted at Rs 50,000 crore for FY25, against Rs 30,000 crore (revised estimate) in FY24 and Rs 61,000 crore in the BE for this fiscal. Of course, the combined target is still less than 2% of the government's expected non-debt receipts for FY25.

The government on Tuesday said it will borrow Rs 6.55 lakh crore in the second half of 2023-24 through dated securities, including Rs 20,000 crore through issuance of Sovereign Green Bonds (SGrBs). The government meets its fiscal deficit mainly through market borrowings.

The government plans to reduce gross borrowing to Rs 15.3 lakh crore in FY25, targeting a fiscal deficit of 5.5% of GDP. SBI researchers believe that net market borrowing will be around Rs 11.7 lakh crore, resulting in gross borrowings of Rs 15.3 lakh crore after repayments. Adjustments and switches may lower the borrowing to less than Rs 15 lakh crore.

New Delhi, Mar 27 (PTI) The Centre is planning to raise Rs 7.5 lakh crore through market borrowing in the April-September period of 2024-25 to fund the revenue gap to push economic growth, the finance ministry said on Wednesday. Out of gross market borrowing of Rs 14.13 lakh crore estimated for 2024-25, Rs 7.5 lakh […]

Yields on government bonds slumped after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman pegged the gross and net market borrowing for FY25 at Rs 14.13 lakh crore and Rs 11.75 lakh crore, respectively. Most experts had pegged the gross market borrowing to be a little over Rs 15 lakh crore.

In the Interim Budget, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman may peg the government’s gross market borrowing for the FY25 at between ₹15 lakh crore and ₹15.5 lakh crore

The borrowing programme is finalized in consultation with RBI, the ministry said. The Centre has budgeted a gross market borrowing of ₹15.43 trillion in FY24.

The Indian government plans to borrow ₹6.55 lakh crore in the second half of the financial year, remaining on track with its budget estimate. The borrowing will include a new 50-year security for the first time, and ₹20,000 crore will be raised through sovereign green bonds. Analysts believe this adherence to borrowing plans demonstrates fiscal prudence and should calm market nerves.

Tuhin Kanta Pandey, secretary in the department of investment and public asset management, said that the government will look at disinvestment and dividend holistically