Key Points
While we expect the Nifty to give a 10-12% return over the next one year, we also see volatility levels going up in the near term given uncertainties to global growth due to aggressive tightening by the US Fed, says Jyoti Roy, Head of Equity Research, Sanctum Wealth...
We are seeing some turnaround in Indian markets is it the post Diwali dhamaka or Santa rally?..
However, we have seen a cool-off in the US bond yields recently as the US Fed indicated that they may be done with their rate hikes which along with weaker-than-expected US non-farm payroll numbers for October led to a global risk-on rally with Indian markets too rallying in sync with global markets on the back of continued strong domestic flows and short covering...
However, we believe that private capex will improve gradually from here on as the impact of the increase in interest rates on Indian corporations is not as severe vs. the developed markets and the leverage levels of India Inc. are in a comfortable position.. Hence, factors like employment and rural recovery hold the key to the private capex maintaining its gradual growth path..
FII flows have been volatile over the last year and we expect that it will continue to remain volatile given very high-interest rates globally and aggressive liquidity withdrawal by the US Fed in the form of quantitative tightening...
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