ET World Leaders Forum: Cautiously optimistic on global economy, says Rich Lesser, Global Chair, BCG

Japan & UK released data showing that these economies have entered technical recession. Germany is also facing economic contraction in 2023. India's poised to be negatively affected.

According to RBI's bulletin, even as global growth is set to slow down or even enter a recession in 2023 as global financial markets wager, India has emerged from the pandemic years stronger than initially thought, with a steady gathering momentum since the second quarter of the current financial year.

“Unlike the global economy, India would not slow down – it would maintain the pace of expansion achieved in 2022-23. We remain optimistic about India, whatever the odds,” RBI said in its 'State of Economy' report released in the Monthly Bulletin for March.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded India's growth forecast for FY24 to 6.3% from 6.1% due to stronger-than-expected consumption in the April-June quarter. The forecast for FY25 remains unchanged at 6.3%. India is expected to continue being the fastest-growing major economy. The global economy is projected to slow down, with growth forecasts revised downwards.

India expects its economy to grow around 7% in the next fiscal year, outpacing the global economy. The growth will be supported by stable domestic demand and private investment. Recent events in the Red Sea crisis may impact global trade and supply chains, affecting trade flows, transportation costs, economic output, and inflation worldwide.

India is set to become the world's third-largest economy by FY28, two years earlier than projected, according to economists at SBI Research. The team said the figures, which would see India surpass Japan and Germany and account for 4% of the global GDP share, were achievable with growth rates anywhere between 6.5% to 11.5%.

India has been an island of economic growth in a slowing global economy, but the focus should be on structural reforms to sustain that advantage, the Reserve Bank of India said in its annual report. Inflation is moderating and the external account is sound, but one threat to macro stability could be if the anticipated el nino manifests.

The IMF has said that the world economy is projected to grow at less than 3% in 2023 and China and India would account for half of the global economic growth this year.

India Business News: NEW DELHI: The Indian economy has carried the momentum from FY23 into current fiscal year and high-frequency indicators paint a healthy picture of sta.

In the midst of all this global turmoil, India is in a relatively sweet spot. While India’s GDP growth is expected to moderate from an estimated 7% in FY23, it would still be at around 6.1% in FY24.