These Nifty Financial Services stocks can deliver more than 15% returns

After a long phase of three years of consolidation and relative underperformance, there were some initial signs of the private sector banks making a comeback attempt. There have been reasons for their underperformance, right from mega merger which created a technical issue of overhang in shareholding, to changes in the top management. Also the fact that these stocks came in the over owned category of foreign institutional investors, who have been sellers time and again.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously voted to keep the repurchase rate at 6.50%.

After a long phase of almost two decades, during Covid there was a sudden phase of expansion in price earning multiples which IT stocks were getting. Now as nothing is permanent on markets, a phase of mean reversion or readjustment of valuations started after October 21. It has been more than two years that largecap IT stocks have been going through this and after a gap of a long time, they are showing some early indications at worst might be over. But because there has been a major technological shift in the last two years, it is a trade that only investors with patience should look at taking. Stock Reports Plus, powered by Refinitiv, is a comprehensive research report that evaluates five key components of 4,000+ listed stocks - earnings, fundamentals, relative valuation, risk, and price momentum to generate standardized scores.

Increasing interest rates indiscriminately affects all borrowers, but tightening prudential norms, particularly in high-risk sectors like unsecured lending for discretionary purchases, demonstrates a more strategic shift in RBI's approach

It has been more than three years that some of the biggest wealth creators in the private sector banking space have not been able to deliver much to their shareholders. Each one of them had its own set of issues to deal with. One where a big merger was getting planned and executed, others have seen a change at the helm and had to go through a process of shareholding adjustment to meet the regulatory requirements. Is this phase of going through adjustments over and will they get their mojo back.

One change for making higher provision for unsecured loans and we see all the NBFC stocks tumbling. The short term reaction of the street is a mix of two things. First the technical position in the markets, whether the stock or sector has seen a recent runup or not and secondly emotional one without understanding the working of a sector or a company. Sometimes these short term reactions are opportunities as the macro picture of the sector is far better and stronger as compared to what is being perceived in the short term due to one action or the newsflow.

Among many industries which have seen a strong transformation in the last nine years due to policy initiatives has been the sugar industry. This is despite the fact that sugar is a state subject where central policies can only play a limited role. If one looks at the balance sheet of a large number of them, they are far better placed than they were six years ago and to some extent in the last two years even the institutional investors have started to take exposure in this sector which they have avoided for more than three decades.

In the correction that markets saw in the last four trading sessions, the financial sector stocks, right from banks to other players also declined. But if one looks at the magnitude and the internal breadth of the sector it was much better as compared to a month back when the market correction was started by HDFC bank. There was a bit of profit booking in the PSU bank space, but once again after a small corrective move, things were back with a strong intraday recovery. The way things are panning out in the industry with regulatory tightening taking place, there is very likely that we might see a divergence in performance of different segments of this sector which has the highest correlation with the GDP growth. Better balance sheets and strong franchise are likely to be the differentiating factors. The factor which is largely technical in nature is the shareholding patterns that will also impact the performance of the stocks from this sector.

After a long period of time, bears are seeming confident. How long they will be able to roam on the street is the question for which answers are being sought. For that it would be better to focus on why the correction is taking place. Whether there is just a profit booking after a long phase of out performance or there are any headwinds which the economy is either facing or is likely to face. The answer is very clear that this phase of profit booking and there are no headwinds, in fact there are more tailwinds of clear policy making. This is not to say that this corrective phase will not continue further, if there is any increase in oil prices, there might be some short term pressure, but the long term story stays intact. ET screener powered by Refinitiv’s Stock Report Plus lists down quality stocks with high upside potential over the next 12 months, having an average recommendation rating of “buy” or strong buy . The screener applies different algorithms for all BSE and NSE stocks.

In the last one week, not even one sector has been spared by bears, they were seen across the street. It is time like this that one needs to look at the relative performance and before taking any buy or sell decision one simple question should be asked. The question is that a sector which was doing well when the news about higher GDP growth and other macro numbers were coming, has suddenly corrected, is there something changed for the sector or not. Because if some negative development has taken place in the operating matrix of the sector then it is time to sell, but if nothing wrong has happened to factors which determine the bottomline then why panic and sell. What impacts the operating matrix of the banking sector ? It is the overall economic growth. Banks provide the lifeline of capital to all the sectors which form part of any economy, whether it is retail loans or corporate loans. So when these sectors do well, banks have a higher credit growth. Is there any indication that economic growth is going to come down, not at all. So, let the trader react, not the investor.