ET Poll: CAD seen narrowing in FY24, but unlikely to dip below 2% of GDP

Posted on:
Key Points

India's current account deficit is expected to improve in FY24 but may not slip below 2% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP), an ET poll showed...

The median forecast of 14 economists pegged the current deficit at 2% of GDP in FY24, helped by softening global commodity prices and strengthening of services exports..

The current account deficit for FY23 is expected at 2.5% of GDP, over double the 1.2% of GDP in the preceding year...

"We see CAD easing from here on, led by incrementally improving trade deficit amid receding commodity prices, especially for oil," said Madhavi Arora, lead economist, Emkay Global..

The $132.94 billion services trade surplus for April-February FY23 had helped keep the overall trade deficit contained despite a 43% jump in the merchandise trade deficit to $247.5 billion during April-February FY23 from $172.5 billion in the previous year...

You might be interested in

Expanding CAD poses risks to rupee

28, Sep, 23

The widening of India's current account deficit was driven by a growing trade deficit, reduced net services surplus and decreased private transfer receipts

December quarter CAD narrows to 1.2 percent of GDP

26, Mar, 24

“The current account deficit narrowed in Q4 despite a wider merchandise trade deficit, cushioned by a record high services trade surplus and secondary income” Rahul Bajoria, MD & Head of EM Asia (ex-China) Economics, Barclays. “ Positive FDI and FPI flows kept the BOP in surplus. We expect current account financing needs to remain manageable this fiscal year and next.”

Driven by rise in services exports, India's current account deficit narrows to 0.2% of GDP in Q4 FY23: RBI

27, Jun, 23

CAD is a key indicator of the balance of payment of a country. The sequential decline in CAD in the fourth quarter of the last fiscal was mainly on account of a moderation in the trade deficit to $52.6 billion from $71.3 billion in the preceding quarter

Goldman Sachs revises India's current account deficit forecast to 1.3% from 1.9% of GDP

02, Jan, 24

Goldman Sachs says in 2024, a reduction in India's current account deficit can be attributable to a 0.7% reduction in oil trade deficit, 0.2% increase in services trade surplus, 0.2% increase in non-oil trade deficit and 0.1% reduction in primary income

Current account deficit dips sharply to 1% of GDP in Q2

27, Dec, 23

India’s current account deficit (CAD) declined sharply to 1% of the GDP or $8.3 billion in the second quarter (Q2) of the current financial year, mainly d

India's April merchandise and services trade deficit at 21-month low

15, May, 23

India Business News: India has reduced its merchandise and services trade deficit to a 21-month low in April due to a drop in importation, partially caused by decreasing d

Mexico’s booming exports provide more evidence of nearshoring

28, Jun, 23

Mexico recorded a trade deficit of $74 million in the month of May, significantly less than $1.5 billion in April.

India's CAD declines to 2.2% of GDP in Q3 on narrowing trade deficit

31, Mar, 23

India's current account deficit declined to US$ 18.2 billion, or 2.2 per cent of GDP, in the third quarter of the ongoing fiscal on account of the narrowing merchandise trade deficit in Q2FY 23, coupled with robust services and private transfer receipts, RBI data showed on Friday.

Surging crude may take CAD past 2% of GDP, say economists

02, Oct, 23

Economists predict that India's Current Account Deficit (CAD) will increase in the second half of the fiscal year, surpassing 2% of GDP. The CAD for the June quarter was 1.1% of GDP, lower than expected, but the gap widened due to a contraction in the trade deficit. Rising crude oil prices, particularly for Russian crude, which accounts for a third of India's fuel imports, are a major factor contributing to the widening CAD. If oil prices average $100 per barrel in the second half of the fiscal year, the CAD could reach 2.1% of GDP.

India's current account gap narrows to 1% of GDP in Q2 FY24 - cenbank

26, Dec, 23

MUMBAI (Reuters) - India's current account deficit narrowed in the July-September quarter largely due to a lower merchandise trade deficit while services exports also grew, the central bank said on