Key Points
The duality in consumer assessments of the present and the future is caught in two indices based on the RBI surveys: The current situation index and the future expectations index...
By December, the two indices started diverging; while the current index saw a little improvement at 90.7, the future expectations index jumped to 100.7 a gap of 10 points..
For while the current index of consumer confidence for May 2023 is more or less back to where it was almost a decade ago, at 88.5 (reflecting concerns about inflation, a decline in spending on non-essentials, and the employment situation), the future expectations index is elevated at 116.3...
First, therewasno point in the recurring surveys when people were pessimistic about their overall economic situationwhile looking a yearahead; the future index always scored better than the current situation index...
If indeed the level of consumer confidence is a political bellwether, the question is whether the present level of the current situation index is good enough for the BJP to score another electoral triumph, a year hence..
