Benefiting from higher GDP growth: 5 logistics companies with upside potential of up to 45%

There are many facts about the logistics industry which might surprise many. Just to mention a few, a metal major has such a large fleet of owned trucks that the unit itself can be listed as a separate company and probably would figure in top 5 logistic companies. Second, in logistics, the major share is with the unorganized sector. Third right from a company which restructured its operations by selling some parts of business and then taking over another company to get into micro delivery space. To a company which increased its fleet size dramatically in the post covid era to cater to increased economic activity for auto and metal space. The whole logistics sector has seen a major shake up in the last few years.

Logistics is a very broad term, right from warehousing companies to goods transporters all form part of this chain. But if one looks at the listed space in India, it is transportations companies which dominate. Logistics as a sector has seen many headwinds both in terms of operations and structural challenges. Any sector which goes through this phase tends to bring out clear winners and that is when we tend to see a re-rating. It is a sector which is direct play on the economic growth of a country. The reason, if the economy is doing well, more goods will be produced and they will have to be transported and that is why in large developed economies, logistic companies form part of a very important transportation index. Given the recent GDP numbers have been better than expected and it is projected that for the next couple of years India would be the fastest growing economy, the logistic sector is likely to remain in focus.

It is close to two years that as a sector IT stocks has been getting all the negative reviews from analysts. In this painting all with the same brush, some of the mid-cap stocks where the business is not just servicing a big client but operating in a niche area have also got ignored. However, now a divergence is appearing. While Infy might have cracked after its Q2 result, some mid-cap and small cap witnessed a sharp rise post their result. It is probably a time to take a look at each company separately rather than just looking at what stocks like TCS and Infy are doing and take a call on the overall sector.

“PSU stocks market cap have gone up a little more than 3x in three years. But there are individual companies, within this basket, of course, that have given 500, 800, 1000%, 1500%, 2000% returns. PSUs are clearly the leader of the market. I still feel that, PSU banks are quite compelling. I do not think they have peaked out.”

If one looks at how the policies have panned in the last nine years. It is clear that one by one every sector has been looked upon and if that sector has been getting government subsidies in any form, the government has tried to improve the delivery mechanism of that subsidy by plugging leakage in a manner that the right person gets the subsidy and the government gets the intended result. In the case of the fertilizer industry, it started with urea getting coated with neem which was not a financial measure but had a financial impact. Similarly, there were some measures which in the short term impacted some fertilizer companies but over a period, there has been a clean up going in the industry. Will the street be having a re-look at them ?

India’s stock market is expected to grow in the long term albeit with some short-term volatility.

Deven Choksey discusses the positive trajectory of Adani Ports, Torrent Pharma's strategic growth approach, and Tata Consumer's market readiness. The evolving market dynamics favor strategic expansions and operational stability for these key players. Choksey further says that automobile ancillaries give a good amount of opportunity at this point of time.

According to GlobalData's study of companies’ annual reports and earnings call transcripts in 2022, despite the ongoing volatile market conditions and the challenges posed by inflation, companies are actively discussing about M&A.

While the recent performance of stocks like REC, PFC and recently listed IRDEA has brought focus back to one segment of power companies. But the fact is that in the last few years, the sector has been going through a consolidation. Some of it was forced by the banks due to many companies going under the IBC and some due to the fact that any industry which has gone through a troubled phase of almost a decade, the players who are able to survive tend to get more attention because they have learnt the art of surviving a tough phase which is one most important feature for long term survival. Power sector stocks are now catching up with what the market has witnessed in the last few years.

In 2008, the IPO of a power company got subscribed in less than a minute of its opening and the size of that issue was Rs 11,563 crore. This just shows the desire to own power sector stocks at that point of time. From those days of frenzy to the nadir in 2014, when power companies were on the top of the list of NPA of the banks. Power companies have seen both the extreme of valuations. It is a sector where after many failures and to some extent a consolidation, some companies have emerged which know how to deal with all kinds of economic and industry cycles. That is probably the reason why a number of companies from the power sector have seen a sharp re-rating in the last one year. Hoping the survivors have learnt their lessons.