Opportunity in headwinds with a long-term perspective? 5 agro-chemical stocks with upside potential of up

Majority of businesses have a cycle of ups and downs. The question is whether the downs are cyclical in nature or they have come up due to one off event. Agro chemical sector is in a down cycle due to one off events. Sudden increase in inventory in the industry, oversupply which came into markets to resumption of the Chinese production post covid curbs. That is the reason that the sector which did extremely well in the first part of the bull run which starred post covid has been underperforming for some time. Given the fact that in the last three months, the problem of over inventory in the system has started to reduce. Is the worst of the issues behind the agro chemical companies?

Among many industries which have seen a strong transformation in the last nine years due to policy initiatives has been the sugar industry. This is despite the fact that sugar is a state subject where central policies can only play a limited role. If one looks at the balance sheet of a large number of them, they are far better placed than they were six years ago and to some extent in the last two years even the institutional investors have started to take exposure in this sector which they have avoided for more than three decades.

The bull run which started right in the middle of 2020 when covid was ravaging the world, had seen many sectors coming into limelight. One among them was agrochemical. The whole sector got rerated and some of the Indian companies which are focussed on domestic markets got fair share of attention from the street. But then they faced headwinds and have been underperforming, but in case of the companies the headwinds are temporary and the underlying changes these companies are doing makes them worthy of looking as long term investment bets. ET screener powered by Refinitiv’s Stock Report Plus lists down stocks from the chemical sector with high upside potential over the next 12 months, having an average recommendation rating of “buy” or a “hold”.

In 2008, the IPO of a power company got subscribed in less than a minute of its opening and the size of that issue was Rs 11,563 crore. This just shows the desire to own power sector stocks at that point of time. From those days of frenzy to the nadir in 2014, when power companies were on the top of the list of NPA of the banks. Power companies have seen both the extreme of valuations. It is a sector where after many failures and to some extent a consolidation, some companies have emerged which know how to deal with all kinds of economic and industry cycles. That is probably the reason why a number of companies from the power sector have seen a sharp re-rating in the last one year. Hoping the survivors have learnt their lessons.

Sometimes a rationale which goes against owning a set of stocks at the start of a bull run, comes in handy in the case of a correction in stock markets. There is one sector where business updates from companies talk in the common lingo. First one is: growth will be muted. Second, margins will be under pressure due to cost inflation and third, competition is increasing in different categories. The sector is FMCG where the narrative is that it is a bad time to buy FMCG stocks. Probably, it is time to take a contrarian call in this sector.

While the recent performance of stocks like REC, PFC and recently listed IRDEA has brought focus back to one segment of power companies. But the fact is that in the last few years, the sector has been going through a consolidation. Some of it was forced by the banks due to many companies going under the IBC and some due to the fact that any industry which has gone through a troubled phase of almost a decade, the players who are able to survive tend to get more attention because they have learnt the art of surviving a tough phase which is one most important feature for long term survival. Power sector stocks are now catching up with what the market has witnessed in the last few years.

While they had been listed for a long period of time, Indian companies in agro chemical space got the real attention of the street only four years back. As many tailwinds appeared on the scene, there was strong re-rating of the whole sector. Typically, what happens when a sector gets re-rated is that valuations run ahead of time and there are too many eyes which are watching the sector. So, if there is even a little bit of disappointment, the selling pressure is also equally high. In the case of agro chemicals there were some real problems which came up soon after the re-rating took place. Chinese companies become overactive and dumping, globally inventory levels reaching very high for some segments. As every business has a cycle, it is worthwhile to bring stocks on your watchlist when the business cycle is down.

After a long phase of almost two decades, during Covid there was a sudden phase of expansion in price earning multiples which IT stocks were getting. Now as nothing is permanent on markets, a phase of mean reversion or readjustment of valuations started after October 21. It has been more than two years that largecap IT stocks have been going through this and after a gap of a long time, they are showing some early indications at worst might be over. But because there has been a major technological shift in the last two years, it is a trade that only investors with patience should look at taking. Stock Reports Plus, powered by Refinitiv, is a comprehensive research report that evaluates five key components of 4,000+ listed stocks - earnings, fundamentals, relative valuation, risk, and price momentum to generate standardized scores.

It is after a long period of time, that bears have finally made their presence felt on the street. Whether it is, large, mid or small cap market breadth in all segments witnessed a sharp decline. In such times, if one is looking to buy stocks it would be better to look at stocks where some developments have made analysts turn bullish on them. These selected stocks depict a strong upward trajectory in their overall average score which is based on five key pillars i.e. earnings, fundamentals, relative valuation, risk and price momentum. This implies that there has been a significant improvement in their market outlook in the given time frame.

Pharma as a sector, both in terms of business and stocks price performance has been under pressure for a very long time. Some time USFDA issues, at other instances of pricing pressure in US markets have been troubling the sector. However, recently some tailwinds have emerged both for the companies focussing on domestic pharma and also the ones focussed on the US generic market. The list is based on upside estimated by the analysts, with the highest potential stock coming on the top of the list.