Looking for safety with a reasonable growth premium? 4 midcap stocks with right PEG ratio

It makes sense to pay more for a stock whose earnings grow at a faster rate. That is the reason why when a sector gets discovered first as a fast growing sector we see a sudden rush of money in that sector. If it is midcap stocks then it deserves to be paid more. Now, how much more should be paid is the question. One of the ways is to determine by dividing a company’s PE multiple with its growth ratio.

Every business has its own capital requirement matrix and this is what makes them prone to risks of interest rate cycle. Of all the stocks, which our algorithms come up with, we took companies from three sectors. On the list, there is one of the biggest wealth creators from the specialty chemical space. ET screener powered by Refinitiv’s Stock Report Plus lists stocks with high upside potential over the next 12 months, having an average recommendation rating of “buy” or strong buy .

One of the reasons why looking only at Price earning (PE) ratio leads to wrong decisions, is that by the time PE gets adjusted to newly announced earnings per share (EPS), it is too late. Especially in the case of commodity stocks, PE ratio is probably the last thing to look at as it creates a mirage of value.

Capital good companies had faced tough times for many years. Given the fact that hardly any capacity buildup was taking place in any industry, a number had to change their product portfolio and had to live with very low margins. But all the efforts have now started to show some results. Given the performance of the stock, a large majority of these stocks have hold recommendations from the analysts.

While the recent performance of stocks like REC, PFC and recently listed IRDEA has brought focus back to one segment of power companies. But the fact is that in the last few years, the sector has been going through a consolidation. Some of it was forced by the banks due to many companies going under the IBC and some due to the fact that any industry which has gone through a troubled phase of almost a decade, the players who are able to survive tend to get more attention because they have learnt the art of surviving a tough phase which is one most important feature for long term survival. Power sector stocks are now catching up with what the market has witnessed in the last few years.

One of the biggest challenges which manufacturing companies and too large ones face is the right allocation of capital. The reason, they go through various economic and business cycles where they face both the problem of plenty and scarcity of capital at different points of time. When a metal company starts making money, it mints money. Post that what it does --buy more mines, expand capacity or retire debt -- will determine its future. When looking at manufacturing companies, look carefully at PEG ratio which long-term indicates many things in a better manner than most other ratios.

In 2008, the IPO of a power company got subscribed in less than a minute of its opening and the size of that issue was Rs 11,563 crore. This just shows the desire to own power sector stocks at that point of time. From those days of frenzy to the nadir in 2014, when power companies were on the top of the list of NPA of the banks. Power companies have seen both the extreme of valuations. It is a sector where after many failures and to some extent a consolidation, some companies have emerged which know how to deal with all kinds of economic and industry cycles. That is probably the reason why a number of companies from the power sector have seen a sharp re-rating in the last one year. Hoping the survivors have learnt their lessons.

Last week, the correction started with a private sector bank leading the fall. However, the very next trading session there was a sharp correction in mid-cap index and the markets breadth turned negative. This follow up of correction in a short span is a clear indication that high valuations are a weight on the street mind. This means higher probability of a correction in mid-cap space if there is any trouble with Nifty. So, be cautious while taking exposure as a correction mid-cap is more harsh in terms of price cut on individual stocks.