Is all the bad news and views priced in ? 4 stocks from the natural gas sector for contrarian trade.

At a time when everything on the street appears good and green, there is a case of being selective. The reason, if it is in a raging bull market, the street never stays in this all good and green mode forever.when the street starts to become selective, it is stocks where there are some improvement in the business operating matrix tend to weather the storm better. So as an investor, one needs to look at every sector and company and their operating and valuation matrix separately. These selected stocks depict a strong upward trajectory in their overall average score which is based on five key pillars i.e. earnings, fundamentals, relative valuation, risk and price momentum. This implies that there has been a significant improvement in their market outlook in the given time frame.

Recently, an announcement about pushing the electric vehicle (EV) more aggressively in Delhi, brought pressure on the stocks like IGL. While there is no doubt that over a period of time, EV will dominate, does it mean the end of the business of the gas companies? The answer is probably no, there are many other use cases and narrative about negative impact might be over stretched.

There are some sectors where the macro structure is such that for one or the other reasons the overall growth is higher. This is not to say that growth comes without phases of slowdown, but when tailwinds come they are able to take care of all the slowdown and over a period of time, growth is much better. So, at times valuations are high, take exposure to stocks and sectors where at least there is high probability of growth ensuring that over a period of time, valuations get normalized. When we talk of market size it is not only India but in some cases global markets also. Second, look at business that is bound to grow as markets expand and every transaction brings in some money to the topline and industry structure is such that cost does not grow in the same proportion leading to higher and stable margins.

At a time when it is not possible to find stocks that can be called “fairly valued” and forget “undervalued”, but the sentiment continues to be bullish, it is tough for retail investors to control their desire to buy stocks. The fact is that this market has been in an overvalued zone for quite some time, but as they say, liquidity and sentiment can ensure that market remains in that zone for longer than anyone expects. So, for investors, it would be wise to take exposure to stocks, where a sector the overall market size is very big or the sector has reached an inflection point where the market size will grow or they have an income stream that has an element of annuity. The reason why this strategy works is that even if the valuations are expensive at the time of buying stocks, steady growth in the industry helps in normalizing the valuations of individual stocks.

Growth at reasonable prices (GARP) could be a helpful strategy to adopt in this market environment.

For the first four trading sessions of the week, it appeared that bears are finally waking up but then on Friday, it was bulls all over the street again. Better than expected GDP numbers, and high GST collections, probably were the trigger point for the bulls to once again stay in control. While it might be too early to say, there is a possibility that the market's may see a more bullishness in nifty than broader market breadth. Essentially, the probability of a selective correction which is essentially led by the profit booking continues to be high. At this time if one is looking to increase exposure, it would be better that they should look for stocks where there are some improvements in the business operating matrix that tend to weather the storm better. These selected stocks depict a strong upward trajectory in their overall average score which is based on five key pillars i.e. earnings, fundamentals, relative valuation, risk and price momentum. This implies that there has been a significant improvement in their market outlook in the given time frame.

Investors should be selective while participating in the market as some sectors are overvalued. However, many sectors and stocks are showing growth after years of stagnation and are available at reasonably good valuations, making it a good time to invest. The staple and chemical sectors are showing some signs of overvaluation, as are some pockets of the tech sector. In contrast, the utility sector looks interesting due to lack of investment in renewables or power in the last few years.

Besides the hit which nifty and sensex have taken, what is more important is that there are more declines than advances and that is largely due to market breadth in the mid-cap segment. This is indicative of continued profit booking happening at the broader market level. At this point of time, one cannot rule out more profit booking which can bring more damage to stock prices in the mid-cap segment. In such times, if one is taking fresh exposure to equity, ensure that there is some level of quality as far as the business and fundamentals are concerned. These selected stocks depict a strong upward trajectory in their overall average score which is based on five key pillars i.e. earnings, fundamentals, relative valuation, risk and price momentum. This implies that there has been a significant improvement in their market outlook in the given time frame.