Sectoral tailwinds and stronger balance sheets: 5 largecap stocks with right mix of two important ratios

In the last two years, every sector has come into focus at one point of time or the other. Some came into limelight due to the fact of real positive changes in the fundamental operating matrix of that sector. While others came into focus just because of too much liquidity chasing Indian paper. In the case of the pharma sector, after years of consolidation, valuation readjustment and regulatory learning which altogether led to positive change in the fundamentals, the stocks made a comeback. It is almost a period of six to eight years that the industry is back on the list where there are more positive developments than negative. These changes have come after the management of a large number of pharma companies learnt the lesson hard way. The lessons that expansion based on PPT presentations on market growth are probably not the best way to run business, rather ensuring compliance to regulatory requirements is more important. So sectors like pharma which have seen a very long phase of business remodelling and valuation readjustment need to be brought back on the watch list.

Gas stocks have been underperforming the market for quite some time. The argument against them has been multifold, right from stagnation in terms of volume growth, companies not being able to expand in newer areas and the latest one being the threat from EV. Couple of months back, an announcement about pushing the electric vehicle (EV) more aggressively in Delhi, brought pressure on the stocks like IGL. While there is no doubt that over a period of time, EV will dominate, does it mean the end of the business of the gas companies? The answer is probably no, there are many other use cases and narrative about negative impact might be over stretched. Also the street might be ignoring the fact that these companies have enough cash on the balance sheet and also cash flows from existing lines of business to move into new areas which are part of the EV eco system.

Report by Organisation of Pharmaceutical Producers of India and Ernst & Young says growth could be propelled by expansion in the domestic market, spurred by India's economic growth.

There are some sectors which are able to face bears in a better way. The reason, the operating matrix of those sectors is such that rising interest rates and other economic headwinds have little impact on their working because they are taking care of a need which is very basic in nature and if spending has to be done on that, it cannot be postponed. Pharmaceutical companies come into that category. This is not to say that there was a phase of almost 7 years that pharma stocks became under-performers. That was a very different reason, most of which have been taken care of. So there is a good chance that this time pharma stock will be able to tackle bears in a much better way.

Just before the whole market was consumed by the PSU rally, one sector that came into the limelight after many years of underperformance was the Indian pharma companies, yes they are very different in every sense from MNC pharma. During the PSU rally, these pharma stocks have been consolidating, however, in the last few days, some of them have once again started reacting to positive developments in the individual company indicating that there is money on the sideline that is ready to come into these stocks. Sectors like pharma which have seen a very long phase of business remodelling and valuation readjustment need to be brought back on the watch list. It might be too early to call, but if a re-rating gets momentum once again then they might be better candidates for volatile markets.

Among many industries which have seen a strong transformation in the last nine years due to policy initiatives has been the sugar industry. This is despite the fact that sugar is a state subject where central policies can only play a limited role. If one looks at the balance sheet of a large number of them, they are far better placed than they were six years ago and to some extent in the last two years even the institutional investors have started to take exposure in this sector which they have avoided for more than three decades.

While the recent performance of stocks like REC, PFC and recently listed IRDEA has brought focus back to one segment of power companies. But the fact is that in the last few years, the sector has been going through a consolidation. Some of it was forced by the banks due to many companies going under the IBC and some due to the fact that any industry which has gone through a troubled phase of almost a decade, the players who are able to survive tend to get more attention because they have learnt the art of surviving a tough phase which is one most important feature for long term survival. Power sector stocks are now catching up with what the market has witnessed in the last few years.

Nifty is now 20x 1-year forward - higher than the past 10-year average, but relative to EM (ex-China) the premium at 67% is only somewhat higher than the historical average. Also, on a PEG basis, the Indian market appears reasonable, said Jefferies.

Everyone who was thinking that EV space belongs to startups and old companies that dominate the internal combustion engine (ICE) segment would not make it to EV space, probably would have to go and again read the story of the tortoise and rabbit. A large part of the out-performance that stocks like TVS Motors & Tata Motors have seen in the last 2 years can be attributed to their moving early into the EV space. Let’s go back a couple of years. What dominated the headlines was the XYZ startup focused on EV space has become a unicorn because it has raised $20 million at such and such valuations. Here we need to make a distinction between the total amount raised which will go into the company operation and the valuations. The total amount which is real business is just Rs 150 crore, though the valuation has crossed more than $1 billion. Valuations don't run business, they only get headlines.

In 2008, the IPO of a power company got subscribed in less than a minute of its opening and the size of that issue was Rs 11,563 crore. This just shows the desire to own power sector stocks at that point of time. From those days of frenzy to the nadir in 2014, when power companies were on the top of the list of NPA of the banks. Power companies have seen both the extreme of valuations. It is a sector where after many failures and to some extent a consolidation, some companies have emerged which know how to deal with all kinds of economic and industry cycles. That is probably the reason why a number of companies from the power sector have seen a sharp re-rating in the last one year. Hoping the survivors have learnt their lessons.