BFSI stocks: They shed weight much before others do, time to be contrarian and buy?

While the bank nifty might be facing pressure in today’s trading session, it is because of the three private banks with high weightage in the indices witnessing selling pressure.For contrarian and short term traders there might be an opportunity given the fact that it has been witnessed that such moves are followed by short covering sooner or later. But again this probably is trade for high risk traders or investors who have the ability to take a stand against market narrative. Check out Stock Reports Plus, powered by Refinitiv, for price targets of over 4,000 listed stocks along with detailed company analysis focusing on five key components - earnings, fundamentals, relative valuation, risk and price momentum to generate standardized scores. SR+ Reports is a complimentary offering to ETPrime members.

While it might be too early to call or to some it might appear to be wish of which bears on the street would have, but the way the market breadth has panned out, there is probability of a selective correction taking place, which is essentially led by the profit booking. At this time if one is looking to increase exposure, it would be better that they should look for stocks where there are some improvements in the business operating matrix that tend to weather the storm better. These selected stocks depict a strong upward trajectory in their overall average score which is based on five key pillars i.e. earnings, fundamentals, relative valuation, risk and price momentum. This implies that there has been a significant improvement in their market outlook in the given time frame.

“Just going by the present rate of growth, that magic number of 100,000, which has been talked about extensively, it would obviously be achieved. But the real issue here is how investors make money and how they make money at a faster rate and how they outperform the broader indices?”

Experts suggest that the trajectory of future FPI flows will largely depend on how India maintains macroeconomic stability and improves corporate earnings.

As the financial markets venture into 2024, investors face market opportunities and heightened volatility. Nishit Master advises investing in good-quality companies with consistent positive cash flows to shield against anticipated turbulence. Mohit Ralhan recommends a comprehensive portfolio review, rebalancing allocations to align with risk tolerance. He cautions against poor-quality companies and suggests implementing stop-loss mechanisms to protect profits. Alok Agarwal advises against timing the market, emphasizing disciplined rebalancing and asset allocation. Varun Saboo recommends strategic allocation with a focus on large caps for stability and growth potential.

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) continue to remain net buyers at Rs 221.85 crore on Thursday. DIIs, on the other hand, sold shares worth Rs 273 crore.

After a brutal correction, at an index level we can see some respite. But at the broader market levels, there are clear signs that valuations are still a concern. So, it might be too premature to call that the risk of overall high valuations leading to more time wise correction is over. There are questions at this point of time which need to be addressed. First, what does one do with existing investments? Second, which set of stocks one should look at if one is making if one is planning to put in fresh money? The answer to the first question, move out of stocks where fundamentals are in doubt and stocks price have just moved up because of liquidity which was rolling on the street. For the second one, stick to large caps and even in that diversify exposure to different sectors. Don't over expose oneself to one sector as one headwind in a sector can take away gains. Last but not least, stick to companies with certain level of Return on Equity (ROE), Return on Capital Employed (ROCE), and company debt levels should not be overlooked

Whether it is upward or southward movement of Nifty or Sensex, it is largely led by financial services stocks which include banks, both private and public sector and other heavy weights which essentially are part of the financial services. The reason, high ownership of foreign portfolio investors ( FPI ) in the majority of financial services and banking stocks. The big difference this time has been the fact that while private banks are correcting, PSU banks have been able to outperform and have provided a counter to bears. If the PSU banks start to correct, will it lead to correction in overall markets ?

Broadly the market has been in a consolidation over the last 20 months. With earnings climbing higher than valuation premium getting washed off, equity markets now appear more evenly poised than before.

On Wednesday, thanks to one stock, Reliance industry, nifty was able to make a comeback. But what is more important is that market breadth, which has been under pressure for most of the sessions for the last three weeks, was in the green territory for most of the time. It is important to keep one eye on market breadth as that would be a more reliable indicator for deciding the strength and possible time frame for which the rally may last. Another thing which one should monitor closely is when the numbers of how much money has flown to mutual funds in the month of March which would get released in early April. This would be an indication of how much impact did AMFI advisory to mutual funds had on ground. Also, this would answer the question, whether this is another short term profit booking move or a beginning of a long phase correction and valuation adjustment.During this phase, analysts are bullish on select stocks from different sectors, some of which are either the leaders of their sector or part of the top three companies which are known to be well managed. ET screener powered by Refinitiv’s Stock Report Plus lists down quality stocks with high upside potential over the next 12 months, having an average recommendation rating of “buy” or strong buy . This predefined screener is only available to ET Prime users.