Key Points
The two weakest sectors in the market right now are FMCG and private banks based on the data from 1st of February to now..
I think this week remains critical because it is the week prior to expiration and sometimes selling pressure does build up during this week, so we will be watching till Friday whether we can really stay above 22,120 odd because if we slip back below that, that will further confirm that yes, this ended up being a false breakout..
Remember that the rally in December into January was on the back of a lot of volume because of wide participation and probably the mid and smallcap segment PSUs and so on, but now the recent attempt to go higher is occurring on a very low volume showing lethargy in the market and little buying at higher levels and so that is also another sign that we may be in very late stages of this move and therefore remain cautious on the indices and the market in general...
If we go back below 22,120, then I am looking at retesting the 21,500 level that is the critical support and if that breaks, maybe the weekly average is at 2,500, so that is sort of the risk reward in Nifty in my mind..
We still need to see the momentum turned down over from the last five-six days of bounce, but the weekly momentum indicators remain bearish and so we will again look at retesting the lows that we made recently close to 44,600 and if that breaks, then possibly go to 42,500 or so that is sort of the setup I am seeing in both the indices...
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