Omega bull run: Mid, smallcaps to outperform for 5-10 years; largecaps also do well: Vikas Khemani

Next year is predicted to see three major technologies in India's economy: space, AI, and medtech. The space sector is expected to experience exponential growth due to the government's openness for private participation, forming the basis for 6G communication. Startups in space-tech will be needed to create indigenous satellites and develop solutions to societal problems.

Vikas Khemani of Carnelian Capital Advisors discusses the growth potential of the pharma sector and the positive outlook for IT companies like TCS and Infosys. He believes that the underperformance of pharma over the past seven to eight years is coming to an end, with a promising trend emerging in both the US and domestic markets. Khemani also highlights the long-term investment opportunities in the IT sector, particularly with the decline in US interest rates.

“We are seeing the earnings growth trajectory of India led by banks, the capital goods sector doing very well and FII inflows. In the last week or two, FYTD is up a solid $18 billion. But yet, over three years, we are a negative number. If India's GDP is growing at four times that of the rest of the world, the risk-off trade should be a big vantage point for India.”

“From a margin perspective, things are getting better and revenue growth should start accelerating from the third quarter onwards. Therefore, we believe that in a lot of the small cap and midcap names, there is an opportunity to do bottom-up stock picking and we remain quite constructive on selective names.”

Carnelian Capital Compounder Fund aims to invest in a concentrated portfolio of 25 long-only stocks within its QARP framework, focusing on capturing the trillion-dollar Indian market opportunity. In response to macro headwinds and geopolitical issues, all flagship schemes have reportedly delivered decent outperformance versus its benchmarks. The portfolio is reportedly evaluated within two broad baskets--Magic (50%-60%) and Compounder (30%-40%)--to identify companies with visible change and a blend of sustainable earnings growth.

“The manufacturing pack is up for good times. A lot of reforms have happened in the last five to seven years which have benefited the manufacturing companies. I think a lot more will be done in terms of reforms. So, manufacturing is one great place where a lot could happen.”

“I guess, people made a lot of money after Covid and they are looking for avenues to invest. Even after this runup, many are sitting on a significant amount of cash. So, even now, the liquidity is not completely exhausted. I guess it is just the money which was probably printed during the Covid times, which is still making rounds.”

“We have been slightly more constructive towards the PSU banks. Banks have done very well performance wise and in terms of fundamentals, but the stocks have not participated. It is the second and third tier PSU banks which have participated. We think there is still merit, particularly in some of the larger second tier banks.”

Anshul Saigal says some people are holding cash but I would say the majority are not holding cash. What that means is that the majority are not expecting a meaningful correction while some are expecting a meaningful correction. An investor who is looking for defensives should go for FMCGs. An investor who is looking for long-term wealth creation should look at QSRs. And there are now multiple opportunities in that space to make money over the next few years.

Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance's Sampath Reddy, prefers value-oriented stocks over growth and expects the market valuation to peak between 19 to 20 times PE in the coming year. Although the market valuations are slightly high, the Indian macro economy is performing well in terms of GDP growth and benign inflation, driving higher valuations. Reddy notes the shift from growth to value-oriented, higher-interest rate-sensitive utility sectors and believes it will continue.