Don't paint all software companies with the same brush; 3 mid and 3 smallcap IT stocks operating in niche

After a phase of relative under-performance to mid caps stocks, there has been a recent catch up by large cap stocks. While there is no denying that sentiment is positive, because valuations are high, any negative news will have a higher impact on stock price. So, incremental exposure should be more toward large caps. Businesses which have a track record of being able to deal with all the swings of economic cycles and even take higher advantage of economic boom. It is the large cap companies with strong balance sheets, strong brands which probably the ones which should be looked at in these conditions.

The correction which was essentially started with a large cap segment has moved into mid-cap stock. It is not the first time this correction has taken place and a similar trend is visible in the past also. In such times it would be better to select stocks where analysts are bullish. ET screener powered by Refinitiv’s Stock Report Plus lists down quality stocks with high upside potential over the next 12 months, having an average recommendation rating of “buy” or strong buy . This predefined screener is only available to ET Prime users.

While the recent performance of stocks like REC, PFC and recently listed IRDEA has brought focus back to one segment of power companies. But the fact is that in the last few years, the sector has been going through a consolidation. Some of it was forced by the banks due to many companies going under the IBC and some due to the fact that any industry which has gone through a troubled phase of almost a decade, the players who are able to survive tend to get more attention because they have learnt the art of surviving a tough phase which is one most important feature for long term survival. Power sector stocks are now catching up with what the market has witnessed in the last few years.

Gone are the days, when a single company was considered a bellwether for IT sector stock. Today, whether it is a large or mid sized company, all have different focus areas and hence their quarterly results tend to differ from one another. Stock Reports Plus, powered by Refinitiv, is a comprehensive research report that evaluates five key components of 4,000+ listed stocks - earnings, fundamentals, relative valuation, risk and price momentum to generate standardized scores.

Sometimes a rationale which goes against owning a set of stocks at the start of a bull run, comes in handy in the case of a correction in stock markets. There is one sector where business updates from companies talk in the common lingo. First one is: growth will be muted. Second, margins will be under pressure due to cost inflation and third, competition is increasing in different categories. The sector is FMCG where the narrative is that it is a bad time to buy FMCG stocks. Probably, it is time to take a contrarian call in this sector.

Volatility never gives notice before coming and again on Monday, it did not give one. The difference is that this time the impact of volatility was felt by more investors and traders. There are two probable reasons, list of top loser on Monday was dominated by PSU stocks which have been the best performing set of stocks in last few weeks and that all those who only recently realized that there is something called PSU and jumped on the bandwagon are probably looking at their phone and saying why have their portfolio has fallen so hard. Second, the overall market breadth was extremely bad which means more portfolios got hit. There is a high probability that volatile movement in broader markets might continue for some time, So, it would be better to stay prepared for volatility. One of the ways for that would be to stay with large caps and especially the ones which have shown streak of outperformance at a time when other large caps have been under pressure.

In 2008, the IPO of a power company got subscribed in less than a minute of its opening and the size of that issue was Rs 11,563 crore. This just shows the desire to own power sector stocks at that point of time. From those days of frenzy to the nadir in 2014, when power companies were on the top of the list of NPA of the banks. Power companies have seen both the extreme of valuations. It is a sector where after many failures and to some extent a consolidation, some companies have emerged which know how to deal with all kinds of economic and industry cycles. That is probably the reason why a number of companies from the power sector have seen a sharp re-rating in the last one year. Hoping the survivors have learnt their lessons.

It is close to two years that as a sector IT stocks has been getting all the negative reviews from analysts. In this painting all with the same brush, some of the mid-cap stocks where the business is not just servicing a big client but operating in a niche area have also got ignored. However, now a divergence is appearing. While Infy might have cracked after its Q2 result, some mid-cap and small cap witnessed a sharp rise post their result. It is probably a time to take a look at each company separately rather than just looking at what stocks like TCS and Infy are doing and take a call on the overall sector.

After inline numbers from TCS and disappointment by infy, it might appear that Q4 earning season for the IT sector has taken a back seat. That might not be the case, as Q4 results will throw a light on how individual companies are managing the situation in a changed environment. Stock Reports Plus, powered by Refinitiv, is a comprehensive research report that evaluates five key components of 4,000+ listed stocks - earnings, fundamentals, relative valuation, risk and price momentum to generate standardized scores.

While there are clear signs of large cap stocks making a comeback on the street, it is reflected both in movement of Nifty sensex. The problem is that as a word the “large cap” is so open ended and we keep seeing stocks moving in and out of that category which are the ones which one should focus on. If one looks at the last six months of the stock market moves, a new industrial house appears to be born and has caught the fancy of the street. Yes, we are talking about PSU as a set of companies. It is not owned by one individual but by the government of India so there is an element of the largest shareholder being one entity and that is why it may be called a new industrial house. Beside the ownership another common thread running in these companies is the impact of the clean up and restructuring of policy framework which has come in different sectors and in these companies in particular. So there is high probability and yes only high probability of these stocks doing relatively better in stormy conditions on the street.