Key Points
Samir Arora, Founder & Fund Manager, Helios Capital, says what is so different this time from earlier cycles is that in the US, there are seven stocks doing well which have more justification than the Indian smallcaps doing so well.. Arora further says he is very bullish on the budget to come..
Samir Arora: No 2018 was a bit aggressive. 2018 was a bit high and there is no need to immediately associate this year with 2018 where there was a capital gains cut and an equally sharp rally in 2017..
Go and see the US index before 2019; you will see nearly same performance and there it is a mirror image of India that the largecaps since 2020 have massively outperformed and therefore although it is not working yet, people are talking about buying equal weight index and the Russell 2000 which is buying the smaller caps or an equal weight index, completely opposite of India where the largecaps have done badly and the smallcaps have done well..
If I have to reduce 1% fiscal deficit or point X percent and that means $25-30 billion you have to save on your spending either from subsidies, which cannot be the case or on your capital capex and if you do that there cannot be any transformational budget. Therefore, the only way it works is that you take one or two PSUs or two or three PSUs and sell them off completely..
When you are asking about the market now, there is no point in thinking this month or that week when there is one big event for which logically, it will be big simply because the government itself or the prime minister himself is saying it will be a transformational budget...
