Sugar, FMCG sectors can be part of the portfolio now: Anshul Saigal

While the capex cycle has been moving well in sectors like railways, road and other infrastructure sectors for some years. In sectors like cement, chemicals, pharma which are driven by the private sector, indications of capital spending on adding capacities, what is commonly called private sector capex coming back are visible. One industry which benefits from this capex would be the capital goods sector, but one has to be very careful in choosing the stock as the word “capital goods stocks” is prone to getting misinterpreted.

Recent spike in prices of sugar futures in the global commodity markets have brought back focus on the sugar sector. However, in the case of India, the sugar sector has been going through a transformation much before that and the bottom lines are becoming better for a large majority of companies. All thanks to mixing ethanol with other fuels. As the underlying macro changes sugar companies are making a comeback on the analyst list and some of them have seen an increased participation by institutional investors.

Among many industries which have seen a strong transformation in the last nine years due to policy initiatives has been the sugar industry. This is despite the fact that sugar is a state subject where central policies can only play a limited role. If one looks at the balance sheet of a large number of them, they are far better placed than they were six years ago and to some extent in the last two years even the institutional investors have started to take exposure in this sector which they have avoided for more than three decades.

In a sector, where government policies have a major impact, the risk of any change in policy impacting the players is always present. That is the reason why the valuations of these stocks from such sectors don't cross a certain threshold. Probably the sugar sector tops the lists of such sectors and the reason is because both the central and state governments have some say in the policy making. Recently, there was a tweak in how much sugar cane juice can go for ethanol production and now a rise in fair remunerative price (FRP) which companies have to pay to farmers. In different states, it is called by different names, like state advised price or minimum support price also, however the reaction of the street was that all the sugar stocks tumbled. The fact is that in some states this price which sugar mills pay was hiked months back and that does not mean any negative impact. So, it has to be case by case rather than broad brush.