Margin squeeze to dent banks' Q1 profits, loan growth may offer silver lining

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Key Points

State-run and private sector banks may face modest earnings growth in the fiscal first quarter squeezed by pressures on net interest margin (NIM) mainly due to higher deposit costs...

"This, coupled with a slight moderation in weighted average lending rate for the system, mainly public sector banks, points to the continued pressure on sector margins in the near term," he said.. Emkay Global Financial Services expects banks' pre-provisioning operating profit to record sluggish growth of 4% on-year in the June quarter, and 4% lower sequentially, mainly due to lower margins and higher operational costs, especially for private sector lenders...

He expects public sector banks to be relatively better off with net profit growth at 14% y-o-y vs 8% for private peers, backed by limited margin contraction, trading gains, lower staff cost and contained credit cost...

Motilal Oswal differed on this count, expecting private banks to report earnings growth of 15.6%, ahead of public sector banks 11.5% increase.. The brokerage forecast State Bank of India to report net profit at Rs 16,860 crore in the fiscal first quarter, almost unchanged from Rs 16,884 crore a year earlier..

The bank's margin is expected to remain under pressure in the near term, as deposit mobilisation may take some time before funding cost normalises and borrowings are replaced by lower cost deposits, Motilal Oswal said.. "Treasury performance is likely to remain healthy, underpinned by a decline in bond yields and buoyant capital markets..

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