Key Points
A possible third term for the BJP-led NDA government, as predicted by exit polls, will be positive for continued economic stability and reforms, believe experts, adding that it would also provide comfort to markets...
Final outcome, if in line with exit polls, would likely calm investor nerves as political and policy continuity will be good for risk assets in the immediate run and macro stability in the medium term, said Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist, Emkay Global Financial Services, adding that foreign exchange and rates markets will cheer the outcome, with RBI likely to juggle with the problem of plenty...
A healthy macro balance sheet of both public and private economic agents augurs well for a higher trend growth path, she further said, adding that the agency expects reform-driven targeted expenditure agendas to continue from policy stand point...
Once the election event risk is over, all eyes would be on the budget in July, which could continue with the consolidation process while improving the budget internals, Arora further said.. Giving more comfort to the next government, the economy seems to be better placed with fourth quarter GDP growth at a higher than anticipated rate of 7.8%..
VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services noted that exit polls results which indicate clear victory for the NDA with around 360 seats completely removes the so called election jitters which have been weighing on markets in May..
You might be interested in
Revealed: The growth, deficit assumptions behind the next budget
22, Jan, 24The nominal growth rate assumption always doesn't pan out, but are necessary to plan out spending and budgetary allocation
India's fiscal policy over the past five years has much to commend it
09, Jan, 24More transparent accounting, a calibrated policy approach and relatively realistic assumptions have resulted in credible Union budgets. These have done a worthy job under tough circumstances, although our public debt burden now requires reduction.
Thrust is on letting economy grow on its own momentum: CEA Anantha Nageswaran on next-gen reforms
02, Feb, 24India's fiscal deficit had shot up to 9.2% of GDP in FY21 following the additional spending to provide stimulus to the economy hit by Covid. The Chief Economic Adviser asserted that the latest target of 5.1% of GDP is realistic.
India's interim budget represents welcome statement of responsible fiscal management in an election year:
06, Feb, 24The US-India Strategic and Partnership Forum (USISPF) also commend the government's continued focus on the trinity of infrastructure, inclusive growth, and fiscal prudence in line with growing US-India commercial ties.
Mint primer: Five numbers to help you unlock the Union budget
31, Jan, 24The budget could highlight how India remains poised to outpace every other nation as the fastest growing economy, projecting around 11% growth in nominal GDP for FY25.
India markets to cheer likely third term for Modi, hope for reforms
02, Jun, 24By Bharath Rajeswaran and Jayshree P Upadhyay MUMBAI (Reuters) - Expectations that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will expand his alliance's majority in parliament after the world’s biggest
Fitch says fiscal prudence unlikely to impact India’s sovereign rating
02, Feb, 24Fitch expects India's sovereign rating to remain unchanged despite the government's efforts for fiscal consolidation. The general government debt is projected to stay above 80% of GDP over the next five years, with a deficit reduction target of 4.5% by FY26. Fitch's forecast indicates a deficit ratio of 5.1% in FY25, and GDP growth of 6.5%. The government's focus on capex investment is expected to support the growth outlook in FY25, with a planned expenditure of Rs 11.11 lakh crore, representing a 16.9% increase from FY24's revised estimates.
A user's guide to budget: Know what each document holds
16, Jan, 24The Union budget consists of more than a dozen documents. The budget is structured to present it with clarity and in a detailed manner, following the law. Mandatory documents include the Annual Financial Statement, Finance Bill, and Fiscal Policy Statements. The budget begins with the finance minister's speech summarizing the economy, projections, policy focus, and allocations.
Budget 2024: Buoyant tax revenues and expenditure rationalisation to help keep fiscal deficit target of 5.
23, Jan, 24Interim Budget: HSBC expects the central government to set a fiscal deficit target of 5.3% of GDP in FY25, with buoyant tax revenues and cuts in current expenditure. The government plans to bring the fiscal deficit down to 4.5% of GDP by FY26. Despite higher subsidy spending, the government is likely to meet the fiscal deficit target of 5.9% set for FY24 due to higher tax buoyancy. The government's spending on capital expenditure is expected to be lower than budgeted, contributing to deficit containment. HSBC also predicts that fiscal consolidation will lead to RBI delivering two rate cuts in FY25.
Interim Budget 2024 may see modest expenditure hike as Centre looks to stay on fiscal glide path
17, Jan, 24Budget 2024: The government aims to limit the increase in overall spending to around 10% in the interim budget for FY25, balancing the need for sustained growth with fiscal consolidation imperatives. It plans to achieve this by raising capital expenditure at a slower pace, while moderately increasing revenue spending. The government has set a fiscal deficit target of 4.5% of GDP by FY26 and expects to meet the target this year.