Key Points
Just two-thirds of Tory voters at the last election say they would make the same choice again..
Britain is almost certain to be among them; its general election must be called no later than December 17th (which would mean the actual vote happens in January 2025)..
But using uniform national swingwhich assumes that changes in vote share are constant across constituencies and has historically been a reasonable approximation of the final resultsuggests that the Conservatives could lose nearly three-quarters of their seats at the next election..
Professor Green thinks that polls will tighten once the campaign is under way, not least because some Tory voters from 2019 who currently say they are undecided are likely to return to the party fold..
Sir John Curtice, a professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, thinks that just one thing will determine when the vote is held: whether Mr Sunak, who took the job in October 2022, wants to be prime minister for 18 months or two years..
