Federal Reserve still sees significant inflation risk that may merit more rate hikes, minutes show

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Key Points

Federal Reserve officials were divided over the need for more interest rate hikes at the U.S. central bank's July 25-26 meeting, with "some participants" citing the risks to the economy of pushing rates too far even as "most" policymakers continued to prioritize the battle against inflation, according to minutes of the session that were released on Wednesday...

"Participants remained resolute in their commitment to bring inflation down to the ... 2% objective," the minutes said of a meeting in which policymakers on the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously agreed to raise the benchmark overnight interest rate to the 5.25%-5.50% range..

Yet cautionary voices about the effects of continued monetary tightening appeared to play a more prominent role in the debate at last month's policy meeting, an indication that the spread of opinion at the Fed has widened as policymakers weigh evidence that inflation is falling and judge the potential damage to jobs and economic growth if rates are raised higher than necessary...

In general, the minutes said, Fed policymakers agreed that the level of uncertainty remained high, and that future interest rate decisions would depend on the "totality" of data arriving in "coming months" to "help clarify the extent to which the disinflation process was continuing" - a possible indication of a more patient approach to any further rises in borrowing costs...

Investors in contracts tied to the federal funds rate are betting heavily that the Fed won't raise its policy rate again during the current tightening cycle, and as of Wednesday morning had put a 90% chance on the prospect that the central bank would leave rates unchanged at its Sept. 19-20 meeting...

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