Key Points
Historically, the S&P 500 has experienced a median drawdown of 14% over the next 12 months when valuations stand at current levels or above, compared with a 5% drawdown over a typical 12-month period, Goldman Sachs said.. "With valuations now pushing the outer limits of what we would think would be reasonable..
Catalysts that could cloud the outlook include unexpected weakness in economic growth, the potential for the Federal Reserve to be more hawkish than markets have priced in, and a rebound in inflation, investors said.. WFII recently downgraded the technology sector, which has led this year's S&P 500 rally, to "neutral" from "favorable," citing "unattractive" valuations...
Goldman urged investors to consider "downside protection" to their stock portfolios, though they expect the S&P 500 to reach 4,500 by year-end, or about 3.5% above current levels...
The earnings outlook for the high-growth companies that make up the Nasdaq 100 is more tepid than in 2021, when the index also rallied sharply, making it more challenging to justify high valuations, said Michael Purves, chief executive officer at Tallbacken Capital Advisors...
The S&P 500's over 20% move up from its October lows has convinced some investors that equities are now in a "bull market" phase, and history shows stocks tend to keep rallying after reaching the 20% threshold...
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