Lower interest rates forecast for 2024, but geopolitical tensions can keep monetary policy on its toes

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Key Points

Following a similar path in interest rate hikes and inflationary pressure, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is almost done with rate hikes and has kept the rates unchanged since early 2003...

The latest Indian Economic Monitor by DMI Finance states that global central banks are increasingly signaling that they see the battle against inflation as nearly over and that their policy bias is shifting toward lowering rates in 2024 to try to ensure continued economic expansion...

In contrast to its higher-for-longer message just two months ago, the US Fed has now readied itself to talk about rate cuts," states Quantum Mutual Fund.. "More importantly, the Fed doesnt see a recession as a pre-condition for rate cuts; just a sign that the economy is normalizing and doesnt need the tight policy will be enough for the FED to move," states Quantum...

"With Governor Das repeatedly highlighting that a pivot is off the table unless inflation aligns with the 4 per cent medium-term target on a sustainable basis, we do not expect any further rate moves for the rest of the fiscal year," says a report from Barclays...

Amid speculations about US-China or US-Iran and China-Taiwan tensions, unexpected past events like the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Hamas conflict underscore the importance of central bankers staying vigilant...

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