India's growth seems secure despite global headwinds and uncertainties

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Key Points

The total subsidy bill in the years first half stood at 2.1 trillion, which is the highest half-yearly amount seen in the past four years and 3.8% higher than the already high subsidy burden in the corresponding period last year..

After touching a high of 13.4 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2022-23, new projects announced reduced to 6.6 trillion in the following quarter and then to 1.2 trillion in the second quarter of 2023-24 (as per the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy)..

However, if the war spreads further and turns into a wider conflagration that involves Iran (which accounts for 3.8% of global crude oil production), it could result in a crude-oil price spike, with serious implications for global growth and inflation..

Amid weak global demand, Indias merchandise exports remain poor, having contracted by 8.7%, year-on-year, in the current fiscal year so far..

Indias services sector exports have remained robust, though, despite a global slowdown, growing by 5% in 2023-24 so far..

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