Adding sweetness to portfolio; 5 stocks from sugar industry with upside potential of up to 35%

The Indian sugar sector has gone through a transformation. From being just a provider of an essential commodity, to being the largest provider of ethanol. Some companies have shifted their focus and have gone through restructuring by hiving off their ethanol unit to focus on ethanol only. As the underlying macro changes sugar companies are making a comeback on the analyst list.

In 2008, the IPO of a power company got subscribed in less than a minute of its opening and the size of that issue was Rs 11,563 crore. This just shows the desire to own power sector stocks at that point of time. From those days of frenzy to the nadir in 2014, when power companies were on the top of the list of NPA of the banks. Power companies have seen both the extreme of valuations. It is a sector where after many failures and to some extent a consolidation, some companies have emerged which know how to deal with all kinds of economic and industry cycles. That is probably the reason why a number of companies from the power sector have seen a sharp re-rating in the last one year. Hoping the survivors have learnt their lessons.

Among many industries which have seen a strong transformation in the last nine years due to policy initiatives has been the sugar industry. This is despite the fact that sugar is a state subject where central policies can only play a limited role. If one looks at the balance sheet of a large number of them, they are far better placed than they were six years ago and to some extent in the last two years even the institutional investors have started to take exposure in this sector which they have avoided for more than three decades.

While the recent performance of stocks like REC, PFC and recently listed IRDEA has brought focus back to one segment of power companies. But the fact is that in the last few years, the sector has been going through a consolidation. Some of it was forced by the banks due to many companies going under the IBC and some due to the fact that any industry which has gone through a troubled phase of almost a decade, the players who are able to survive tend to get more attention because they have learnt the art of surviving a tough phase which is one most important feature for long term survival. Power sector stocks are now catching up with what the market has witnessed in the last few years.

If one looks at how the policies have panned in the last nine years. It is clear that one by one every sector has been looked upon and if that sector has been getting government subsidies in any form, the government has tried to improve the delivery mechanism of that subsidy by plugging leakage in a manner that the right person gets the subsidy and the government gets the intended result. In the case of the fertilizer industry, it started with urea getting coated with neem which was not a financial measure but had a financial impact. Similarly, there were some measures which in the short term impacted some fertilizer companies but over a period, there has been a clean up going in the industry. Will the street be having a re-look at them ?