Real interest rates need to climb before RBI's easing cycle begins
Ahead of this week's scheduled review meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), market watchers and investors are keen to know the timeline for India's rate easing cycle. However, the texture - and driver - of India's robust economic growth rates suggest their wait will perhaps be of some duration. Key Points
Economic TimesIs the worst of headwinds behind them? 5 agrochemical stocks with upside potential of up to 32%
While they had been listed for a long period of time, Indian companies in agro chemical space got the real attention of the street only four years back. As many tailwinds appeared on the scene, there was strong re-rating of the whole sector. Typically, what happens when a sector gets re-rated is that valuations run ahead of time and there are too many eyes which are watching the sector. So, if there is even a little bit of disappointment, the selling pressure is also equally high. In the case of agro chemicals there were some real problems which came up soon after the re-rating took place. Chinese companies become overactive and dumping, globally inventory levels reaching very high for some segments. As every business has a cycle, it is worthwhile to bring stocks on your watchlist when the business cycle is down. Key Points
Economic TimesTrimming PSU stock positions gradually: Anish Tawakley, ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
ICICI Prudential AMC's Deputy CIO - Equity, Anish Tawakley, advises caution on PSU stocks due to valuation concerns. The team focuses on domestic cyclical sectors and has thrived by spotting the recovery in the real estate cycle and early homebuilding activity. They monitor capacity utilization, earnings expectations, and manufacturing performance. Key Points
Economic TimesBest cycles for teenagers: Top 10 budget-friendly choices
Best cycles for teenagers: Find the best cycle for teenagers that combines quality, affordability, and style. Pick from the 10 options to find the right cycle. | Health Key Points
Hindustan TimesBest bicycles with gears for adults: Top 10 picks for ultimate ride
Discover the ultimate ride with our blog. Unveiling the top 10 picks for the best cycle for adults with gears. | Health Key Points
Hindustan Times
cycle syncing is trendy. Does it work?
The practice of planning workouts around the menstrual cycle to optimize fitness results, known as “cycle syncing,” has permeated mainstream fitness, too. In 2021, the wearable fitness tracker Whoop introduced features to help women sync their workouts and cycles. Key Points
The Indian ExpressWhat it looks like to break the toxic cycle
“To every person who had the courage to break the cycle, thank you. You are changing this world,” wrote Nicole LePera. Key Points
Hindustan TimesFive reasons women must keep a track of their menstrual cycle
Menstrual cycle length varies between individuals and any cycle which is regular and between 21-35 days is considered normal. Knowing what is "normal" for you is important so that you can identify when something starts going wrong. Key Points
The Indian ExpressMukul Kochhar on main investment theme for next 5 years & 2 things to avoid this year
Investec Capital Services' Mukul Kochhar predicts that the private capex cycle will drive job creation, savings accumulation, and premiumisation for the next five to six years. The investment cycle will boost earnings growth and contribute to supporting manufacturing investments, allowing discretionary consumption in the Indian market to grow as per capita GDP increases. Investec recommends portfolios that avoid exceptionally high multiples and over-anticipated stocks. Key Points
Economic TimesPharma offsetting some of the impact from IT: Vinod Karki
The soft outlook on IT is being compensated by pharma exports, says Vinod Karki, ICICI Securities' equity strategist. He adds that while the Indian IT services sector doesn't have any structural issues, resetting itself is painful, with short-term uncertainty. However, the investment cycle aided by real estate and manufacturing cycles give confidence that future demand will be sustained, meaning the earnings downgrade cycle will not be there. Key Points
Economic Times
India's current economic boom similar to that of 2003-07? Morgan Stanley thinks so, lists 5 parallel trends
In a recent note, global brokerage house Morgan Stanley believes that the current India's economic boom closely resembles that of 2003-07. MS has also highlighted the following five characteristics, which should help investors frame their approach to India in this cycle. Key Points
mintIndian stocks to gain only modestly in 2023 despite RBI rate hike pause: Poll
Indian equity strategists have scaled back their year-end outlook as a new bull run in India's already-richly valued stock market is unlikely, according to a Reuters poll. The Sensex and Nifty 50 indexes were expected to gain 3.8% and 4.6%, respectively, from Tuesday's close to end-2023, slightly downgraded from a February poll. Over 70% of analysts believe Indian stocks will trade in a narrow range for the next three months. While an end to the RBI's modest rate-hiking cycle was positive, the high probability of a U.S. recession this year is likely to limit Indian stocks' gains. Key Points
Economic TimesLower interest rates forecast for 2024, but geopolitical tensions can keep monetary policy on its toes
Globally, the tone of monetary policy has also become less hawkish, suggesting that the most challenging phase of the cycle of increasing interest rates is now behind. This positive development has opened up the possibility of interest rate softening in 2024 to support economic growth. Key Points
Business TodayArvind wants to maintain a 20% plus margin across 3 years and grow aggressively: Punit Lalbhai
“We expect the second half of the year to be better than the first half which we have been maintaining. The bottoming out of the demand situation has happened and there is a slight recovery in some of the markets that we are operating in. It remains a very challenging demand environment.” Key Points
Economic TimesAxis Bank sees final rate hike in April
The RBI has raised its benchmark repo rate cumulatively by 250 basis points to 6.50% since the beginning of the rate hike cycle in May 2022. Key Points
Financialexpress
Sebi to launch beta version of T+0 trade settlement for 25 scrips
Sebi introduces beta T+0 trade settlement cycle alongside T+1 for 25 scrips with limited brokers. Investors must meet process and risk requirements. There will be one continuous session from 09:15 am-1:30 pm. The surveillance measures that are currently applicable in the T+1 settlement cycle will also be applicable to scrips in the T+0 settlement cycle. Key Points
Economic TimesHeadwinds are an opportunity for long-term investors: 6 agro-chemical stocks with upside potential of up t
Majority of businesses have a cycle of ups and downs. The question is whether the downs are cyclical in nature or they have come up due to one off event. Agro chemical sector is in a down cycle due to one off events. Sudden increase in inventory in the industry, oversupply which came into markets to resumption of the Chinese production post covid curbs. That is the reason that the sector which did extremely well in the first part of the bull run which starred post covid has been underperforming for some time. Given the fact that in the last three months, the problem of over inventory in the system has started to reduce. Is the worst of the issues behind the agro chemical companies? Key Points
Economic TimesETMarkets Smart Talk: Real estate sector is witnessing a multi-year cycle: Dr. Poonam Tandon
We believe the long-term capex story remains intact as we are seeing a massive shift in the capex cycle benefiting from the China plus strategy. For us the domestic capex story remains intact and consumers and corporate sentiments are resilient with a steady macro regime post-COVID, but we do not rule out the volatility as the hardening of USD and crude oil prices could pose a challenge in the interim. Key Points
Economic TimesRupee gains for second day tracking Asian peers; premiums inch up
The Indian rupee rose for a second straight session against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, mirroring similar moves in Asian peers, as risk appetite in the region rose on fresh bets of the Federal Reserve nearing the end of its rate tightening cycle. Key Points
Reuters4 large cap stocks with right mix of ROE & ROCE for wealth creation
Are banks more prone to interest rate cycle or is it manufacturing business which is more vulnerable to higher interest rates. Every business has its own capital requirement matrix and this is what makes them prone to risks of interest rate cycle. Of all the stocks, which our algorithms come up with, we took companies from different sectors. On the list, there is one of the biggest wealth creators from the specialty chemical space. ET screener powered by Refinitiv’s Stock Report Plus lists stocks with high upside potential over the next 12 months, having an average recommendation rating of “buy” or strong buy . Key Points
Economic Times
India's economy expansion now a flashback of the mid-2000s' boom cycle
Morgan Stanley's report suggests India's current economic surge resembles the mid-2000s, foreseeing a continuing investment-driven cycle. Noting high investment-to-GDP ratios, it projects a rise to 36% by FY27. Urban demand surpassing rural, reminiscent of the 2003-07 cycle, is expected to continue. India's global market share in goods and services, particularly in exports, mirrors growth seen in the mid-2000s. Key Points
Economic TimesTo ease traffic flow from Zirakpur: Chandigarh admn plans road widening project, cycle tracks on Dakshin Marg
Tenders already floated, project to be complete within nine months, say UT officials; nearly 1.5 lakh vehicles cross the rotaries of Dakshin Marg and Purv Marg near Tribune Chowk on a daily basis, causing a major bottleneck on the stretch. Key Points
Hindustan TimesAvoid cement stocks, tough to play capex cycle now: Anand Tandon
I do not think that there is a great way to play the capex cycle right now. If you are looking for capex cycle plays, it is better off dealing with companies which are in a more traditional business of capex, somebody like Thermax or some of the other names may be better positioned to benefit from there, says Anand Tandon. Key Points
Economic TimesWhy Saurabh Mukherjea is still gung-ho on specialty chemicals, adding to Little Champs portfolio
We have added RHI Magnesita to Little Champs portfolio. RHI Magnesita makes ceramic lining, brick lining which goes into steel plant furnaces or cement plant furnaces. They have around 35% share globally and 40% share in India. Good gross margins 40%, gross margins 15%, operating margins around 30% ROC. It is a near debt-free company. It has an Austrian parent listed in Austria. We have invested in the Indian subsidiaries over the last couple of weeks. Key Points
Economic TimesBubble building in IPO and SME markets, warns Dalal Street’s top multibagger hunter
Siddhartha Bhaiya says: We believe that the capex cycle play could be a long structural play, particularly in India. We are amidst a big infrastructure growth cycle which is not only the need of the hour for our country but is also encouraged by strong policy support. The capital goods sector had been an ignored sector of the last decade wherein there was hardly any capacity addition and a lot of inefficient players went out of business. Key Points
Economic Times
Value emerging in 3 sectors; we have started nibbling into IT: Nishit Shah
BFSI and mid-tier capital goods sectors will perform well in a good economic environment. The BFSI sector will see growth of credit, especially amongst NBFCs who are providing digital initiatives. Some unique consumer durables are emerging which is a new and exciting space. Additionally, IT has some value, while QSR consumption, specialty chemicals, and IT are the three sectors where values are emerging . Key Points
Economic TimesIndian cricket domestic media rights: Can BCCI breach 1 billion dollar mark with 21 games against Australi
The Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) expects to surpass $1bn in revenue from selling TV and digital rights for India's cricket games played at home until March 2028, following the invitation of separate bids for the rights. Experts noted that digital rights are likely to outstrip TV rates, with Disney Star and Reliance Viacom and possibly the Zee-Sony conglomerate to submit the bids when the auction takes place in the first week of September. Key Points
Economic TimesIs the worst over for market? Don’t be so hasty, says Nitin Raheja
The Indian stock market is likely to trade in a range for some time, with volatility possibly returning. Selecting the best private bank requires assessing its risk management culture and consistent growth, combined with a liability franchise better than its peers, and clean books. While IT stocks are currently underperforming, Raheja believes these companies have generated cash and dividends during prior economic cycles, and represent a potential value play. Key Points
Economic TimesWhat Saurabh Mukherjea added to Little champ portfolio and can it be another GMM Pfaudler?
“One cannot get the consistent compounding like with Asian Paints, but in the case of Tega or say Grindwell Norton in our Rising Giants portfolio, these sorts of companies, you get the upside when the capex cycle is switched on. But you do not get hammered on the downside when the global economy softens up.” Key Points
Economic TimesWe have a Nifty target of 24,000 in CY24, a 9% upside from current levels: Seshadri Sen
Seshadri Sen of Emkay Global Financial Services is bullish on the manufacturing-led cycle in India, particularly in the industrials, consumer discretionary, and materials sectors. He expects moderate gains in the larger cap space and plans to overweight IT when valuations become favorable. He says: We will be overweight IT when valuations revert back to our side when the large caps maybe touch the low 20s or even below. Key Points
Economic Times
Final RBI rate hike likely tomorrow; 2 rate cuts in Q1 and Q2 CY24 expected: Upasana Chachra
Morgan Stanley's Chief India Economist, Upasana Chachra, expects inflation to be around 5% or a little below for fiscal year 2025, which will allow for a gradual and shallow rate cut cycle. She also expects RBIto hike interest rates by 25 basis points, which is considered to be the last rate hike cycle in this cycle. The RBI can start a rate cut cycle but only from the first quarter of next year, she added. Key Points
Economic TimesIs the worst behind them? 5 agrochemical stocks with upside potential of up to 38%
Majority of businesses have a cycle of ups and downs. The question is whether the downs are cyclical in nature or they have come up due to one off event. If they are cyclical in nature then is the cycle likely to turn around soon or not ? In the case of a one off event then whether that event's impact is going to be over or will have a deep impact or not ? In the case of the agrochemical sector there is a mix of both, it has an element of cyclicality because of the fact that it takes care of sectors like agriculture where there is seasonality and that brings in an element of cyclicality in agro chemical business. Also there has been one off event in terms of over inventory plaguing the industry globally. Will this be over, while it might be too early to say anything in an industry where China is the dominant player, but surely it would be worthwhile to bring them back on the watch list. Key Points
Economic TimesHumans have driven Earth’s freshwater cycle out of stable state: Study
Dam construction, large-scale irrigation and global warming have altered freshwater resources. Human activity has pushed the Earth’s freshwater resources... Key Points
The Tribune IndiaIndian shares set to open higher on falling US Treasury yields, oil prices
Indian shares are set to open higher on Tuesday on falling U.S. Treasury yields, spurred by renewed hopes for an end to the rate hike cycle and as oil prices hovered around $80 per barrel ahead of the OPEC+ meeting. Key Points
ReutersIndia's CV market to hit new peak in FY24, outlook strong: Ashok Leyland
After hitting a multi-year low in FY21 due to the pandemic, India's truck and bus market has been growing in the last couple of years. In FY23, it surpassed the FY18 peak with 962,000 vehicles. It had sold 856,000 in FY18, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. Key Points
Economic Times
5 largecap stocks with high ROE and consistent ROCE for wealth creation
Every time there is a monetary policy meeting, the talks of interest rate risk come back on the table. Are banks more prone to interest rate cycle or is it manufacturing business which is more vulnerable to higher interest rates. Every business has its own capital requirement matrix and this is what makes them prone to risks of interest rate cycle. Of all the stocks, which our algorithms come up with, we took companies from different sectors. ET screener powered by Refinitiv’s Stock Report Plus lists stocks with high upside potential over the next 12 months, having an average recommendation rating of “buy” or strong buy . Key Points
Economic TimesSrikakulam collector inaugurates cycle rally to promote environment friendly transport
Srikakulam Collector Shrikesh B. Lathakar on May 16 asked people to use cycles to travel to short distances, as they were environment friendly and ensure fitness as well. Key Points
The HinduIndia’s capex run to continue; resembles 2003-07 period: Morgan Stanley
Indias capex cycle is expected to continue its run, with the current uptick resembling the 2003-07 period when growth averaged 8.6%, Morgan Stanley said. Key Points
Economic TimesGoldman Sachs ups Nifty 2024-end target to 23,500; cites 3 factors supporting premium valuation
Goldman Sachs revised price target for Nifty implies an upside potential of more than 8% for the index from the current levels. In trade on Tuesday, Nifty50 was trading at 21,707, up nearly 1% from the previous close. Key Points
Economic TimesPredictions for 2024: Revival of private capex to be the defining trend, says Kumar Mangalam Birla
At its core, private investment is a vote of confidence in the economy. It drives innovation, creates employment, and stimulates economic activity. In 2024, as private investments gain momentum, we will see a ripple effect across various sectors — from manufacturing to technology, from infrastructure to renewables, says Kumar Mangalam Birla. Key Points
Economic TimesUS stocks surge, Treasury yields fall as Fed signals end to tightening cycle
By Stephen Culp NEW YORK (Reuters) -U.S. stocks surged on Wednesday and benchmark Treasury yields slipped to their lowest level since August after the Federal Reserve flagged the end of its tightening Key Points
ThePrintRBI MPC Policy: Interest cycle has peaked, RBI unlikely to cut rates before June 2024, says Deutsche Bank
According to the report by Deutsche Bank, the interest rate cycle appears to have peaked and the Reserve Bank of India is unlikely to go for further hikes, unless absolutely necessary. The rate is likely to be cut in June, it said. Key Points
mintExpect some correction in Oct-Nov, may increase cash in portfolio: Sandip Sabharwal
August-September should be fine for the stock market, but valuations have become extended in the short run, according to Sandip Sabharwal. Investors should prepare for some corrections in October and November, and he plans to increase some cash in portfolios in September. The overall industrial outlook is positive, and infrastructure projects have increased substantially, but Sabharwal sees short-term bouncebacks in the metals sector rather than sustainable growth. Key Points
Economic TimesBank loan rates drop in April, a first in 11 months
Analysts are crediting this drop to seasonality in the credit cycle when growth remains tepid in the first quarter. While both sets of banks saw a month-on-month dip, it was higher for private banks at 44 bps versus 18 bps for public sector banks. Key Points
Economic TimesWar against inflation not yet won, says Monetary Policy Committee member
A member of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), Jayanth R. Varma, has said that it would be premature to declare an end to the tightening cycle and the war against inflation has not yet been won. Varma expressed reservations about the second resolution, stating that he could not put his name to a stance that he did not understand. He emphasized the need for heightened vigilance in the face of fresh risks such as an output cut by OPEC+ and monsoon-related issues. Varma also highlighted that a deficient monsoon could create inflationary pressures that would require counteracting with monetary policy measures Key Points
The HinduExchanges roll out T+0 trade settlement cycle
New Delhi, Mar 28 (PTI) Stock exchanges BSE and NSE on Thursday launched the beta version of T+0, or same-day trade settlement on an optional basis for select stocks. To begin with, this will offer investors an option to transact in 25 securities in T+0 settlement. More than 60 members each participated in both exchanges […] Key Points
ThePrintBest workout bike for home: Pedal toward your fitness goals with our 8 picks worth considering
Best workout bike for home: Looking to work on your fitness and need a gadget for it? A workout bike can be an option for you. Look in this article for the best 8 choices of a workout bike to purchase, with suggestions and features. Key Points
mintT+0 trade cycle to begin Thursday: Will this transition be smooth or rough for D-Street?
Stock exchanges set to introduce 'T+0' settlement for select stocks, parallel to T+1. SEBI to monitor progress. Vamsi Krishna lauds benefits while concerns about market volatility persist. Transition from T+1 required infrastructure changes. Cash market volumes may decline. Key Points
Economic TimesCredit card rule change: Can you change credit card billing cycle, due date multiple times now? What RBI n
Credit card new rule: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has tweaked its guidelines for credit cards. This could mean more control over your billing cycle, the period between your credit card statements. Previously, banks set your billing cycle. Now, the RBI's amendments to the 'Master Direction on Credit and Debit Cards' might allow for more flexibility. It is important to set your billing cycle in a way that you can pay your credit card bill without any difficulty. Can you choose or change your credit card billing cycle and due date? Know what RBI says Key Points
Economic TimesRBI expected to start rate cut cycle from December this year: UBS
The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is anticipated to begin easing interest rates in December 2024, according to a UBS report. This expectation arises from an improving domestic inflation outlook, projected to be 30 basis points lower than the RBI's forecast of 4.5% for FY25, along with a global trend of monetary easing. Key Points
Economic Times
Expect more volatility and lower returns in FY25: Jyotivardhan Jaipuria
Jaipuria provides insights on various sectors including real estate, defense, IT, pharma, and financials. He emphasizes earnings visibility, sector consolidation, and selective investments to navigate market challenges and optimize returns in the evolving economic landscape. He further says that he does not buy textiles stocks because liquidity is a problem in a lot of these stocks and they are very cyclical in nature depending on raw material prices. Key Points
Economic TimesWorld's fastest stock settlement kicks off
India Business News: BSE and NSE to introduce T+0 settlement for 25 stocks in India, reducing risks and freeing up funds. Buyers get stocks in demat accounts. Market insti Key Points
Times Of IndiaRBI policy: Tone’s hawkish, and there’s nothing ‘inadvertent’ about it
We do not communicate anything inadvertently, let me make it very clear, Governor Das told reporters during the customary interaction after the latest policy review that was earlier interpreted as setting the stage for an easing of monetary policy. If somebody is assuming it's a signal to move toward a neutral stance, I think it will be incorrect. Key Points
Economic TimesIndian shares to open higher as US data boosts rate outlook
Indian shares are set to open higher on Thursday, as rising expectations of an end to the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle boosted risk appetite. Key Points
ReutersIndian shares set to rise as Fed triggers rise in global stocks
Indian shares are set to open higher on Thursday, tracking a rise in global stocks after the U.S. Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged and Chair Jerome Powell hedged on the possible end of the rate hiking cycle. Key Points
Reuters
ETMarkets Smart Talk: Time in the market is ultimate Rohit Sharma for driving wealth creation in your port
Time in the market is crucial for wealth creation. Geopolitical concerns, such as higher oil prices and active military action in the Middle East, can have a long-term impact on equity markets. Buybacks are becoming common as they are more tax-friendly for investors and allow companies to return excess cash. The commodity cycle may be affected by geopolitical concerns, with oil being the outlier. SIPs and other non-discretionary flows into equities provide a liquidity cushion for Indian equities. Key Points
Economic TimesMarket to be in consolidation phase over next 1-2 quarters: Mahesh Nandurkar
I mean, the risk-free rates in the US have gone back up to the peak levels that we saw back in March. So, when you are able to make a 5% risk-free rate in the US, then that is obviously going to be something that will put equity valuations all over the world into a question mark, so that is one thing that we need to keep in mind. Key Points
Economic TimesFederal Reserve still sees significant inflation risk that may merit more rate hikes, minutes show
The response in financial markets to Fed minutes was muted, with Treasury yields little changed and U.S. stocks slightly extending earlier losses. Investors in contracts tied to the federal funds rate are betting heavily that the Fed won't raise its policy rate again during the current tightening cycle. Key Points
Economic TimesWall Street climbs on signs of easing inflation; chip stocks gain
U.S. annual inflation slowed considerably in June, likely pushing the Federal Reserve closer to ending its fastest interest rate hiking cycle since the 1980s Key Points
Business TodayRupee to rise tracking further dollar losses on Fed outlook
The Indian rupee is expected to open higher on Friday as the U.S. dollar slid even further on bets that the Federal Reserve is near halting its rate hike cycle. Key Points
Reuters