Sensex, Nifty end higher as investors await Q1 GDP data; RVNL up 4%
The S&P BSE Sensex rose 231.16 points to 82,365.77, while the NSE NIfty50 settled 83.95 higher at 25,235.90. Key Points
India TodayEconomists vs statisticians — the battle being fought over the soul of India’s GDP data
Economists say there are weaknesses in India’s GDP data. But statisticians claim the accusations are based on flawed understanding, saying while GDP has problems, the economists are looking in the wrong places. Key Points
ThePrintGDP set to grow 8% or more in Jan-March quarter: FM Nirmala Sitharaman
Nirmala Sitharaman projects 8% GDP growth for India in Q4 and 2023/24, focusing on inflation management and macroeconomic stability. The Reserve Bank of India governor is optimistic, foreseeing growth closer to 8%. Key Points
Economic TimesIndia's improving savings-investment dynamic amid lower deficits
The current account, reflecting the difference between domestic savings and investments, has seen a significant reduction in India since the taper tantrum, falling from 4.8% of GDP in FY13 to an average deficit of 1.1% per annum from FY14 to FY21. This reduction is attributed to a decrease in investment as a percentage of GDP, outweighing the decline in overall domestic savings. Key Points
Economic TimesTwo top officials explain the 'divergence' behind India's stunning growth numbers
GVA, which is a measure of the total value of goods and services produced in the economy and excludes indirect taxes and subsidies, grew 6.5%, prompting economists to say that GDP data overstated growth trends. Key Points
Business TodayWill stick to 5.8 pc fiscal deficit pegged in RE for FY23: Official
New Delhi, Mar 1 (PTI) The government expects the fiscal deficit to be within the revised estimates of 5.8 per cent of GDP in the current fiscal ending March, an official said on Friday. The revised estimates (RE) had pegged the fiscal deficit at Rs 17.35 lakh crore or 5.8 per cent of GDP in […] Key Points
ThePrintSensex, Nifty gain as strong Q3 GDP growth lifts mood on Dalal Street
The S&P BSE Sensex was up 639.51 points at 73,139.81 at 10:02 am, while the Nifty50 rose 201.65 points to 22,184.45. Broader market indices also opened the day on a positive note. Key Points
India TodayFitch says fiscal prudence unlikely to impact India’s sovereign rating
Fitch expects India's sovereign rating to remain unchanged despite the government's efforts for fiscal consolidation. The general government debt is projected to stay above 80% of GDP over the next five years, with a deficit reduction target of 4.5% by FY26. Fitch's forecast indicates a deficit ratio of 5.1% in FY25, and GDP growth of 6.5%. The government's focus on capex investment is expected to support the growth outlook in FY25, with a planned expenditure of Rs 11.11 lakh crore, representing a 16.9% increase from FY24's revised estimates. Key Points
Economic TimesThe math of how the Centre plans to cut fiscal deficit, explained
The Centre stayed put on the fiscal consolidation path, aiming to bring the deficit down to 5.1% in 2024-25. Reducing revenue expenditure as a share of GDP is the key factor behind this. Key Points
mintInterim Budget may target 5.3% fiscal deficit for FY25: Ind-Ra
Budget 2024: India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) stated that the government aims to achieve a fiscal deficit to GDP ratio of 5.3% in FY25. However, it may miss the 5.9% target for FY24 due to a lower nominal GDP growth rate. The government plans to reduce the fiscal deficit to 4.5% of GDP by FY26. Ind-Ra projected a net tax revenue buoyancy ratio of 1.2x in FY25. It also noted a slowdown in capex growth in FY25 and limited scope for revenue expenditure rationalization. Key Points
Economic Times
GDP data calls for revisiting fiscal numbers
India Business News: To meet the 5.9% fiscal deficit target, the government may need to cut expenditure or increase revenue due to slower growth in nominal GDP. The Nation Key Points
Times Of IndiaMeeting 5.9% fiscal deficit target may get a tad tougher
The Indian government faces challenges in achieving its 5.9% fiscal deficit ratio due to a lower-than-anticipated nominal GDP in FY24. The government must either reduce spending by ₹37,000 crore or increase revenue from the budgeted levels. The fiscal deficit is expected to be ₹17,49,807 crore, slightly breaching the target and reaching 6% of GDP. Key Points
Economic TimesGovernment may project nominal GDP growth at 12% for FY25
Growth seen at 6.5–7% next fiscal, while inflation may be about 4.5–5% Key Points
Business TodayIndia will become advanced USD 5 trillion economy by 2047: MoS Finance to Lok Sabha
At the end of 2022-23, the Indian GDP stood at USD 3.7 trillion. In 1980-81, size of the Indian economy was USD 189 billion, which increased to USD 326 billion after a decade. In 2000-01, the size of the GDP rose to USD 476 billion. Key Points
FirstpostIndia to surpass Japan to become third largest economy by 2030: S&P Global
After two years of rapid economic growth in 2021 and 2022, the Indian economy has continued to show sustained strong growth during the 2023 calendar year. India, the world's fifth largest economy in the world, is likely to overtake Japan to become the world's third-largest economy with a GDP of USD 7.3 trillion by 2030, S&P Global Market Intelligence said in its latest issue of PMI. Key Points
The Tribune India
India to surpass Japan to become second largest economy in Asia by 2030: S&P Global
India's nominal GDP measured in dollar terms is forecast to rise from $3.5 trillion in 2022 to $7.3 trillion by 2030, S&P Global Market Intelligence said in its latest issue of PMI Key Points
Business TodayIndia to surpass Japan to become 2nd largest eco in Asia by 2030: S&P Global
India is projected to overtake Japan and become the world's third-largest economy by 2030, with a GDP of $7.3 trillion, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. The country's rapid economic expansion is driven by strong growth in domestic demand, increased foreign direct investment, and a growing middle class, the report said. Key Points
Economic TimesPopulist expenditure may not hit govt's fiscal deficit targets: Goldman Sach
The government is targeting a fiscal deficit of 5.9% of GDP in FY24 and given the medium-term fiscal consolidation path, it intends to reduce the fiscal deficit by almost 1.5% of GDP over the next two years, to achieve a target of 4.5% of GDP by FY26. Key Points
Economic TimesThe story behind India's Q1 GDP growth
Real GDP growth for April to June has come in at 7.8%—the highest in four quarters. Mint brings you the details Key Points
mintGrossed out or not, but whose GDP is it anyway?
During a speech by King's College London's Anand Menon on the likely decline in Britain's GDP against the backdrop of the Brexit referendum in 2016, a woman yelled back, 'That's your bloody GDP. Not ours.' The media covered those two succinct sentences extensively. Key Points
The Economic Times
ExplainSpeaking | The fly in the (GDP data) ointment: Faltering consumption growth
At 7.2% growth, the GDP data surpassed everyone since most estimates, including RBI’s, were closer to 7%. But the most inconvenient part of the GDP data is the weakness in the growth rate of Private Final Consumption Expenditure. Key Points
The Indian ExpressGDP figures show resilience of economy, says PM Modi; India neither consuming, nor producing, counters Congress
India’s GDP grew 6.1 per cent in the January-March quarter, as compared to 4.4 per cent in the previous quarter Key Points
The Indian ExpressIndia’s general govt fiscal deficit pegged at 8.9% in 2023: IMF
The report has projected India’s general government debt to remain largely stable at 83.2% of the GDP in 2023 as against 83.1% of the GDP in 2022. Key Points
FinancialexpressBuffett Indicator falls below 100%. Is Nifty blinking buy now?
Considering India's nominal FY23 GDP at Rs 273 trillion, Indias total market cap to GDP is now trading at 92%. At FY24 projected nominal GDP levels, Mcap/GDP ratio translated into 84% (fairly valued). As per the Union Budget 2023-24, the FY24 GDP assumption is pegged at Rs 301 trillion, Axis Securities said Key Points
Economic TimesWill Q3 GDP numbers force RBI’s hand on rate hikes?
This is the slowest the GDP has grown since the January-March quarter of 2022 (Q4 FY22). The moderation in GDP numbers can partly be linked to the fading of pandemic-induced base effects and revision to last year's growth, Reuters reported, citing economists. Key Points
Economic Times
ExplainSpeaking | How to read Q3 growth data
Numbers suggest that while India's economy grew faster in the past three years than previously reported, it is rapidly losing its growth momentum. It is likely to slow down from 9.1% in FY22 to under 6% in FY24. Key Points
The Indian ExpressGovt debt stands at Rs 155.6 lakh cr in March 2023
The central government's debt stood at Rs 155.6 lakh crore or 57.1 per cent of the GDP at the end of March 2023, Parliament was informed on Tuesday. The Central Government's debt was Rs 155.6 lakh crore as on March 31, 2023. It has reduced from 61.5 per cent of GDP in 2020-21 to 57.1 per cent of GDP in FY 2022-23, Minister of State for Finance Pankaj Chaudhary said in a written reply to the Rajya Sabha. Key Points
Economic TimesIs India already a $4-trillion economy? No official word yet from Centre
Many political leaders, including Maharashtra Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis, hailed the achievement. Although the finance ministry and the National Statistical Office did not immediately comment on the viral social media post on India's GDP crossing $4 trillion. Key Points
Business TodayIndia to become $5 trn economy early in Amrit Kaal: FinMin
India aims to become a USD 5 trillion economy ahead of schedule, during the Amrit Kaal, as part of the larger goal of becoming an advanced economy by 2047, according to Minister of State for Finance Pankaj Chaudhary. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects India to reach this milestone in 2027-28, with a strong rupee contributing to the achievement through macroeconomic stability. Key Points
Economic TimesBudget 2024: Buoyant tax revenues and expenditure rationalisation to help keep fiscal deficit target of 5.
Interim Budget: HSBC expects the central government to set a fiscal deficit target of 5.3% of GDP in FY25, with buoyant tax revenues and cuts in current expenditure. The government plans to bring the fiscal deficit down to 4.5% of GDP by FY26. Despite higher subsidy spending, the government is likely to meet the fiscal deficit target of 5.9% set for FY24 due to higher tax buoyancy. The government's spending on capital expenditure is expected to be lower than budgeted, contributing to deficit containment. HSBC also predicts that fiscal consolidation will lead to RBI delivering two rate cuts in FY25. Key Points
Economic Times
India a USD 4 trillion economy? No official word yet
India has crossed the USD 4 trillion mark in its GDP, according to a viral social media post by billionaire Gautam Adani, two Union Ministers, and Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis. The finance ministry and the National Statistical Office did not immediately comment on the post, but high-placed sources said the viral news was incorrect and India was still shy of the landmark. Key Points
Economic TimesIndia's economy grew 6.1% in the January-March quarter. 10 points
India's economy grew 6.1% in the January-March quarter from a year earlier, accelerating from 4.4% in the previous quarter, helped by a pickup in manufacturing activity, government data showed Key Points
mintBudget 2024: 5 essential questions for investors answered by Goldman Sachs
Budget 2024: Goldman Sachs in their report answers five key investor questions before the India Union budget for fiscal year 2025. They expect the government to meet the FY24 fiscal deficit target of 5.9% of GDP and expect the government to announce a fiscal deficit target of 5.2 - 5.4% of GDP FY25 Key Points
mintView: Mirror, mirror on the wall
India aims to become a developed country by 2047, with a GDP of $30 trillion and a per capita income of $18,000. However, even with this growth, India will still lag behind countries like the US, South Korea, and China in terms of per capita GDP. The definition of development should go beyond economic measures, focusing on social progress, environmental sustainability, and good governance. Quality of life, prosperity, lack of poverty, cleanliness, discipline, access to culture, and tolerance are important aspects of development. India should strive to be the happiest country in the world. Key Points
The Economic TimesGovernment looks to keep borrowing in check
The big pandemic stimulus and the contraction in the economy worsened the combined Centre and state debt-to-GDP ratio to 89.2% in FY21 from 75.1% in FY20. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecast the ratio will improve to 83.5% of GDP in FY23 and gradually ease from FY26 onwards. Key Points
Economic Times
India's GDP grows by 7.2% in FY23: Govt data
India Business News: India's gross domestic product(GDP) grew by 7.2 per cent in 2022-23 against 9.1 per cent expansion in previous fiscal, as per the government data rele Key Points
Times Of IndiaGovt may prune FY25 fiscal gap target to 5.3-5.4% on slower capex
India's fiscal deficit target for FY25 is expected to decrease significantly in line with post-Covid consolidation plans, potentially dropping to a range of 5.3-5.4% of GDP from the current year's 5.9%. Despite a slowdown in capital asset investments, gross market borrowing is anticipated to remain high, with estimates for FY25 around ₹15.3 lakh crore. The reduction in the fiscal deficit target is attributed to a slower pace of capital expenditure, providing room for consolidation. The government is committed to lowering the fiscal deficit to below 4.5% of GDP by FY26. Key Points
Economic TimesRupee slightly up, but month-end dollar demand keeps lid on gains
The Indian rupee rose on Thursday, tracking the move higher in Asian peers following U.S. GDP data, but had to contend with month-end dollar demand. Key Points
ReutersIndia's 2024 GDP may see another push, to rise from 6.1% to 6.8%: Report
A Moody's report has predicted that India's GDP in 2024 may see a rise of 0.7 percent, according to early forecasts of the economy. Key Points
Hindustan TimesAfter GDP data, Feb numbers show economy continues forward march
India's economy continues to cruise with 8.4% expansion in Q4. GST collection surged 12.5%. Auto firms saw highest monthly sales. Manufacturing activity hit a five-month high. Deloitte India highlights broad-based consumption increase. HSBC India Manufacturing PMI strengthens. Car sales reach all-time high. UPI transactions and coal production rise. Electricity consumption and railways freight show growth. Key Points
Economic Times
Japan's economy slips into recession, raises BOJ policy uncertainty
Japan's economy slipped into recession on weak domestic demand, raising uncertainty about the central bank's plans. Japan lost its title as the world's third-largest economy. BOJ may sharply downgrade GDP forecasts. Takuji Aida expects further contraction. Reuters poll suggests April for ending negative rates. Marcel Thieliant predicts sluggish growth at BOJ's upcoming meeting in March. Key Points
Economic TimesBSE capitalisation reaches $4 trillion as GDP is expected to catch up in the coming fiscal
The $4 trillion milestone has happened earlier for market cap than for GDP. The latter is expected to hit that number in the coming fiscal year. India is No. 5 in the global market cap rankings, the same position as GDP. Indian bourses are, in fact, within striking distance of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is at $4.7 trillion. Key Points
The Economic TimesIndia remains fastest-growing major economy, Q2 GDP growth beats RBI estimates: 5 key takeaways
The GDP growth in the September quarter rose sharply above D-Street estimates along with growth projections by the central bank. The RBI had maintained real GDP growth for 2023-24 at 6.5 per cent with Q2 at 6.5 per cent, Key Points
mintRisks to 6.5% growth forecast for FY24 now evenly balanced: CEA
Benefitting from the positive surprise for Q4, the FY23 GDP growth of 7.2% exceeded the advance estimate of 7% by a healthy margin, data released by the government on Wednesday showed. Key Points
FinancialexpressGDP growth in FY24 likely to be within striking distance of 8%: SBI report
India's GDP growth for the current financial year is expected to be close to 8%, as per SBI's research report 'Ecowrap'. The economy grew 8.4% in the December quarter, surpassing expectations. The government's efforts for direct benefit transfer have resulted in the per capita GDP reaching Rs 2 lakh at current prices. Key Points
Economic Times
India’s GDP growth accelerates to 7.6% in July-September quarter
The GDP growth stood at 7.8 per cent in the first quarter of FY24 and 6.1 per cent in the last quarter of the previous financial year. Key Points
India TodayIndia’s GDP growth slows down to 4.4% in October-December quarter
The growth in GDP during 2022-23 is still estimated at 7.0 per cent as compared to that 9.1 per cent in 2021-22, the government data showed. Key Points
The Indian ExpressIndia's GDP growth to exceed govt estimate of 7.6% in FY24, may touch 8%: RBI Governor Das
Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das predicts India's current fiscal year GDP growth to surpass the government's estimate of 7.6%, possibly reaching 8%. He expresses optimism about the next fiscal year, foreseeing a 7% growth rate. This aligns with a similar outlook from the State Bank of India, emphasizing the resilience of India's economic performance. Key Points
Economic TimesIndia’s GDP growth to fall to 6.2% in FY24: Goldman Sachs
Says political uncertainty in election year main risk. India is likely to record a GDP growth of 6.2% in the current fiscal (2023-24), which will increase to 6.5% in the next 2024-25 fiscal, said American brokerage Goldman Sachs on Monday. Its expectation for the current fiscal is in line with the projections made by other credit rating agencies and mul Key Points
The Tribune IndiaRBI MPC meeting: Real GDP growth for FY24 projected at 6.5%
The MPC, at its monetary policy meeting, decided to keep the policy rate unchanged unchanged at 6.5 per cent, Das announced. It was a status quo at the previous (April) meet too. Key Points
Economic Times
Budget 2024: How India's recent economic prints can shape FM Sitharaman's interim budget moves
Budget 2024: In a convergence of inflation, GDP growth, and existing policies, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's interim Budget for FY25 takes center stage. With her sixth Budget presentation scheduled for February—a vote-on-account ahead of the 2024 general elections—the groundwork for sustained growth and resilience in the next fiscal hinges on current economic dynamics. The preparation of fiscal strategies underscores the critical role played by the present economic landscape in shaping future financial trajectories. Key Points
Economic TimesManufacturing sector should contribute quarter to India's economic growth: M&M Group MD Anish Shah
M&M group Managing Director and CEO Anish Shah has stated that the manufacturing sector should contribute 25% to India's economic growth, as the country aims to become a $30-trillion economy by 2030 and a developed country. Shah also highlighted that India's GDP is expected to contribute as much to the global GDP as the entire European Union combined over the next seven years. Key Points
Economic TimesUS dollar up slightly after GDP data; euro falls after ECB, Lagarde comments
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss NEW YORK (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar edged higher on Thursday after data showed the world's largest economy grew at a faster pace than expected in the fourth quarter, Key Points
ThePrintIndia's economic growth set to accelerate to its fastest in a year: Report
According to the median projection in a Reuters survey of economists, India’s GDP rose 7.7 per cent in the April-June quarter, up from 6.1 per cent in the previous quarter and the strongest growth since April-June 2022 Key Points
Business TodayIndian economy gaining momentum since second quarter, emerges from pandemic stronger
RBIs economic research wing headed by deputy governor Michael Debabrata Patra argued that the sequential slowing down in successive quarters of 2022-23 is due to base effect. As for the data, Indias gross domestic product (GDP) for the October-December quarter moderated to a three-quarter low of 4.4%, according to data released by the ministry of statistics earlier in the month. Key Points
Economic Times
‘Comparing apples to oranges’: Why Govt is defending slowing GDP growth
The government has said there is "much misunderstanding" of the GDP data for Q3, which shows quarterly growth slowing to 4.4 per cent. Key Points
The Indian ExpressTop 10 Fastest Growing Major Economies In The World 2024: India Beats US, China In This Ranking! Check List
Top 10 fastest growing major economies 2024: Which are the top 10 fastest growing major economies in the world? This is one ranking in which India beats the United States of America and China! For the purpose of arriving at the list of the fastest growing major economies for 2024, EY has short-listed the world’s top 25 largest economies in the world by nominal GDP size. These economies have then been ranked in terms of the highest GDP growth rate for 2024 as projected by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest World Economic Outlook. We take a look at the top 10 fastest growing major economies in the world for 2024: (AI image) Key Points
Times Of IndiaA look behind the calculations: How the budget math works
Budget 2024: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present an interim budget on February 1. The interim budget will provide projections for the coming financial year, including calculations on income, spending, and borrowings. The budget-making process is based on assumptions, with the nominal GDP being a crucial factor. Key Points
Economic TimesGDP numbers suggest private capex gaining steam, say experts
India's GDP growth in the September quarter of the fiscal year reached 7.6%, making it the fastest-growing large economy. The rebound was driven by a strong performance in the manufacturing, mining, and services sectors. The Gross Value Added (GVA) in the manufacturing sector saw a growth of 13.9%, indicating a significant increase in production to meet pent-up demand before the festivals. Key Points
Economic TimesBudget 2024: 5 key factors investors should watch out for
Budget News: The upcoming Union Budget for 2024 is expected to have implications for investors, with a focus on tax relief measures, capital expenditure, fiscal deficit, subsidies, and market borrowings. Find out the key factors investors should watch out for in Budget 2024. Key Points
Times Of India
Surging crude may take CAD past 2% of GDP, say economists
Economists predict that India's Current Account Deficit (CAD) will increase in the second half of the fiscal year, surpassing 2% of GDP. The CAD for the June quarter was 1.1% of GDP, lower than expected, but the gap widened due to a contraction in the trade deficit. Rising crude oil prices, particularly for Russian crude, which accounts for a third of India's fuel imports, are a major factor contributing to the widening CAD. If oil prices average $100 per barrel in the second half of the fiscal year, the CAD could reach 2.1% of GDP. Key Points
Economic Times